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By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
Why is China’s New Year Holiday Significant in the Metals Market?
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The 7-day official holiday period usually runs from late January into February, and marks one of the largest human migrations patterns, in which millions of workers travel home. As a result of this, it creates a seasonal distortion in the metals markets, in which ahead of the event, raw materials are stocked up, before factories (including smelters, producers and manufacturers) halt production over an extended two-to-three-week period.
The central crux is the return period after the holiday, where attention is paid to the level of demand for raw materials, which sets the scene ahead of China’s significant Two Sessions meeting in March. Indeed, a weak consumption response has the power to negatively impact industrial metals prices, and vice versa.
With China the single largest producer and consumer of base metals and given ongoing challenges to the outlook in the country, attention will be closely paid to domestic stock levels and manufacturing health in the weeks and months ahead.
The delayed start to the Chinese New Year in 2026, in addition to high base metals prices has done little to encourage a bullish domestic fundamentals outlook.
Indeed, if we look at where we are with domestic stock levels on a seasonal basis, then unanimously across the base metal suite, stocks levels are above five-year averages. Meanwhile, copper, nickel and tin stocks are at their highest level on record for this time of the year.
Seasonal restocking is anticipated in Q1, we will be watching what level of stock is obtained versus the five-year average (dark blue line).
Copper
Lead
Tin
Continue to enter content here
Nickel
Zinc
Aluminium
Meanwhile, looking to domestic refined output, while across the group new record highs were recorded (with the exception of tin), on a Y/Y basis, growth levels came in marginally lower than in 2024 (excluding zinc), however, this was in large part due to base effects following China’s reopening in 2023 following COVID lockdown.
Chinese Refined Production
Production Change (% Change Y/Y
Production Change ( Change 000t Y/Y)
Looking to trade health. 2025 reflected largely individual market dynamics:
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
The recovery in zinc mining (on higher zinc prices over 2024-2025) has resulted in ore imports soaring this year; after posting losses in 2024, a theme we expect will continue in the year ahead.
Tin
Tin imports (both ore and refined) remain in the red in 2025, with Indonesia exports challenged by policy change, while the return of Myanmar's largest mine Man Maw has only resulted in limited output at present (the mine restarted after a 20-month ban in August 2025).
Aluminium
China is forecast to remain a net importer of refined aluminium for the foreseeable future (having started in 2020), with the country expected to reach its capacity ceiling of 45.5Mty in this year. This trade is in part supported by China’s exports of alumina to Russia, with refined aluminium exports from Russia into China posting a record high in 2025.
Chinese Aluminium Trade Statistics
Net Aluminium Exports-Imports
Meanwhile, taking a step back, China’s latest hard economic data readings point to growing imbalances in the outlook, and increasing risks to growth.
Looking at areas of Y/Y underperformances
Comparing to Y/Y outperformances
2025 Hard Economic Data Highlights Divided Country Performance
Chinese Business Confidence Hovers Near Record Low
GDP Deflator Records Longest Streak of Declines Since 1999
Given all of this, in our view, despite announced (and future expected) stimulus in the country over the next year, we forecast that the economy will face ongoing challenges in reaching its targets, especially given there were no announcements in the outline of the 15th Five-Year plan that includes any bazooka style stimulus. Indeed, so far, the current level outlined for issuance of special treasury bonds to local governments is on track to be lower than last year, as too is investment on infrastructure. Therefore, we see a signal for a phase of consolidation and stability rather than aggressive expansion, with GDP likely to struggle to main its 5% growth level, given its high reliance on exports and counteractive moves to increasing advanced manufacturing while increasing efforts of anti-involution. This combined with front-loading last year (ahead of the end of the 14th Five -year plan) provides only a moderate outlook for base metal dynamics in the year ahead.
World Bank Projections for China GDP Growth
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