Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Sucden Financial Sees 2022-2023 Coffee Year Ending in Nearly 5 Million Bag Deficit
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
Sucden Financial Sees 2022-2023 Coffee Year Ending in Nearly 5 Million Bag Deficit
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In a new report, Sucden Financial has forecast global production for the 164.55 million bags, up 5.5% from the 155.99 million bags produced in the previous crop year.
Sucden expects demand to increase 1.5% to 169.51, resulting in a supply deficit of 4.96 million bags.
Key takeaways from the report are as follows:
Sentiment has improved in recent months, with some economists claiming that US and EU might be able to avoid contraction this year, but we believe markets are calling victory on a recession too early.
• While the balance sheet's savings are below the long-term average, American consumers continue to finance their spending through credit levels.
• This year's price decline is unlikely to be smooth, and the markets are beginning to price that in.
• Continued uncertainty about Chinese consumer behaviour will create a volatile exit for the economy, which has spent more than three years under tough restrictions.
• Food inflation has been a hot topic of discussion, and while the wholesale prices for many goods have peaked, retail prices that consumers see in stores show no signs of abating.
• Consumers are seen downgrading to cheaper private brands of goods. With that in mind, we expect sales for branded pods for coffee machines to fall in favour of compatible retail pods.
• With the younger generation being the biggest driver of coffee consumption growth over the long term, we expect to see diminishing coffee content in favour of more milk-based sweeter drinks.
• Chinese demand is set to benefit from the reopening of lockdown restrictions, especially the 1st tier consumers, and with summer sales usually strong given the purchases of cold brew drinks, this could really drive the sales.
• We published our last report in October 2022, when the market was above 200cts/lb, spreads were steady and certified stocks touched the lows of 383,000 bags.
• The past couple of years brought drought, frost, historically high rains, and hailstorms, making it difficult to apply fertiliser to the soil, which is also very costly in this economic environment.
• Taking the average Brazilian exports over the past three years at 41.57m bags and internal consumption at 21m bags, we need 62.57m bags in total.
• The price rally stimulated appetite from exporters, as they benefitted from solid differentials.
• Still, the current supply and its availability are not as ample as was thought to be the case at the end of last year.
• The spreads at a premium highlight the tightness in the market, but we expect this to continue into May and June
• As long as Colombia imports 1.7m bags of Brazils a year, that would confirm that the supply is not there, reaffirming market tightness from the region.
• The scale and pace of the recent increase in Robusta prices are creating risks for a correction in the near term.
• In our opinion, Vietnam crop at this stage is 70% sold, and the market will have to wait until October for the new crop.
• A start of a drawdown could bring back the narrative of market tightness into the market, helping draw down on the certified, helping to support contract prices.
• We expect managed money position to improve as market tightness is felt by the market, supporting price momentum on the upside.
• The increase in positioning for Robusta in recent weeks was accompanied by prices rallying above $2,100/mt and we expect prices to remain elevated in the near term before gaining momentum.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
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