By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has sent crude oil prices sharply lower, unwinding a risk premium that had been building in energy markets throughout the conflict. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is set to resume under a proposed memorandum of understanding to be signed in Switzerland, while the United States naval blockade of Iranian ports is also expected to be lifted. What the market is now grappling with is not the deal itself, but if the structural conditions for oversupply have already shifted enough to make a full flow recovery unnecessary. With pipeline capacity expanded and non-OPEC production rising, the bar for restoring supply pressure may be lower than the headline disruption numbers suggest.
Fiona Cincotta is a Senior Market Analyst at StoneX, covering global macro markets across equities, forex and commodities. Here she turns her cross-market lens on crude oil, assessing what the diplomatic shift in the Middle East means for the supply and price outlook.
"Oil prices are falling around 5% on Monday, dropping to a three-month low" as the United States and Iran agreed to halt the Middle East conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed memorandum of understanding is due to be signed in Switzerland, with the United States naval blockade of Iranian ports also set to be lifted. The trade that had built in that risk premium has already been unwound, and Cincotta is direct about where focus now shifts. "Attention is really turning away from diplomacy to implementation." The key open questions are if the deal gets formally signed, how the 60-day nuclear negotiation window resolves and how quickly disruption in the strait can be reversed.
The answer to how much of a recovery in flows the market actually needs may be more modest than the raw disruption numbers suggest. Cincotta notes that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may only need to return to 60 to 70% of pre-conflict levels before conditions begin to resemble the oversupply seen before the war, with expanded pipeline capacity and rising non-OPEC production having already lowered that bar. "The market may not require a full recovery in flows" before price pressure reasserts itself, she adds. Technically, WTI has broken out of a triangle pattern on the charts, falling to $80 a barrel. A move below that level would expose the 200-day simple moving average near $73, with the March low of $70 a barrel in focus should that give way. Investors will be watching closely for compliance with the agreement and if producers can restore output without further disruption.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Fiona Cincotta, Senior Market Analyst, StoneX
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A US-Iran ceasefire has sent crude oil prices to a three-month low, stripping out the risk premium that had accumulated during the conflict. Expanded pipeline capacity and rising non-OPEC production mean markets may tip into oversupply well before Strait of Hormuz flows return to pre-war levels.
June 15 – A peace deal has been reached with Iran. Stock futures gapped higher as a result, while commodity prices came under pressure. And oh yes, it’s also Fed week on Wall Street. The VIX traded near 16, while the dollar index traded below 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.04%. WTI crude oil prices traded to a three-month low, probing below $80 per barrel at one point early this morning, while Brent dropped below $83 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets followed the energy markets lower as well on the news.
Singapore's bunker fuel market handles hundreds of ship refueling daily, and the signals coming from its inventory levels are beginning to flash warnings across global trade. As refineries deprioritize marine fuel in favor of higher-margin products, the knock-on effects for shipping costs, dry bulk trade and supply chain reliability are becoming harder to ignore.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
