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USDA Attache: Colombia’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop Pegged at 13 Million Bags

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

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USDA Attache: Colombia’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop Pegged at 13 Million Bags 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor 
alexis.rubinstein@stonex.com

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – According to the latest USDA attache report, in MY 2022/23, Colombian coffee production is forecast at 13.0 million bags (1 bag = 60 kilograms unless otherwise noted) of green bean equivalent (GBE). Although international coffee prices are increasing and weather conditions are expected to be normal in the second half of 2022, the upward trend of input costs, primarily fertilizers, will likely hinder productivity in MY 2022/23. Colombia is highly dependent on imported simple fertilizers (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium). The Russian invasion of Ukraine has tightened the world supply of fertilizers and put upwards pressure on fertilizer prices. As a result, coffee producers in Colombia are looking for fertilizer alternatives, such as coffee subproducts, to reduce input costs for primarily nitrogenous fertilizers.

Colombian domestic prices remain high, driven by higher international prices, devaluation of the Colombian peso, and the high-quality differential that the market recognizes to the Colombian coffee. In February 2022, coffee reached its highest value in the history of the country at $2,213,333 Colombian pesos (equivalent to $540 dollars) per 125-kilogram bag.

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee production estimate is 13.0 million bags GBE, 5.8 percent down from the previous forecast of 13.8 million bags. Excessive rains and cloudiness from the La Niña weather phenomena during the first five months of 2022 affected coffee production. According to the Colombian Institute of Meteorology (IDEAM), rainfall is estimated between 20 to 40 percent above historical averages in some of the coffee regions until July 2022. Between August and October 2022, IDEAM estimates rainfall will resume its historical average in most of the country.

In CY 2021, while planting density increased to 5,268 trees per hectare, productivity decreased by 3 percent to 19.3 bags GBE per hectare. This decrease in productivity is mainly a result of adverse weather conditions. In CY 2021, rising coffee prices motivated farmers to expand renovated area to 81,304 hectares, a 32 percent increase compared to the previous year. The replanted area in 2021 was slightly higher than Colombia’s annual goal of 80,000 renovated hectares. Colombia’s current total productivity potential is estimated at 14.7 million bags GBE.

Consumption
In MY 2022/23, Colombian coffee consumption is forecast at 2.2 million bags GBE, which represents no change from the previous year. Despite Colombia’s economic recovery, global uncertainty, rising coffee prices, and high food inflation rates in Colombia are likely to hinder growth in consumption. In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee consumption estimate is at 2.2 million bags GBE, a 2 percent increase from the previous year, driven by the rapid recovery of the economy. In CY 2021, Colombia’s GDP grew 10.2 percent after the economic contraction of 6.8 percent in CY 2020. According to Fedecafe, the growth trend in coffee consumption resumed pre-pandemic levels in CY 2021 due to the reopening of the economy and the return of many workers to the physical office space.

Trade
In MY 2022/23, coffee exports are forecast at 13.0 million bags GBE, which represents no change from the previous year. This is primarily a result of stagnant production. In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee exports estimate is down 6.7 percent from 14.0 to 13.1 million bags GBE, due to an expected reduction in production and increasing domestic consumption. In MY 2021/22, the revised coffee exports estimate is slightly higher than the previous year motivated by high international prices and Colombian peso devaluation.

According to Fedecafe, in CY 2021, the Colombian coffee federation exported 18 percent of Colombia’s total coffee exports in terms of volume, with the remaining 82 percent exported by other private stakeholders. Coffee bean exports represent over 90 percent of total Colombian exports followed by soluble coffee and roasted coffee. The United States continues to be the major destination for Colombian coffee. According to the National Coffee Association (NCA), 66 percent of Americans drink coffee each day, more than any other beverage. This is an increase of nearly 14 percent since January 2021, the largest increase since NCA began tracking U.S. consumer patterns.

In MY 2022/23, coffee imports are forecast to reach 1.9 million bags GBE to balance ongoing demand for exports and domestic consumption, while production remains stagnant. In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee imports are up 9.1 percent from 1.7 to 1.8 million bags GBE to support the slight increase in domestic consumption between MY 2020/21 and MY 2021/22. Brazil became the top coffee supplier for Colombian imports, accounting for 64 percent of total imports in MY 2020/21. Peru was the second largest supplier with 19 percent imports followed by Honduras and Ecuador with a 7 and 2 percent share, respectively. Imports are primarily used to meet the demand for lower quality coffee in the Colombian market. Colombia primarily imports coffee beans (91 percent), followed by soluble coffee imports (8 percent), and roasted coffee (1 percent).

Stocks
There is no government or Fedecafe policy to support large scale carry-over stocks of coffee. In MY 2022/23, ending stocks are forecast to fall to 485,000 bags GBE as a result of decreasing production levels, unchanged domestic demand, and good export levels.

 

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