Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
USDA ATTACHE: Colombia’s Coffee Production At 14.1 Mln Bags in 2021-2022, Exports Down at 13.5 Mln Bags
By: Diana Delgado, Contractor
USDA ATTACHE: Colombia’s Coffee Production At 14.1 Mln Bags in 2021-2022, Exports Down at 13.5 Mln Bags
Bogota (Coffee Network )-The Colombian coffee production forecast is 14.1 million 60 kg bags as excessive rains during the first quarter of the year will marginally impact the October-November harvest, when Colombia produces its main harvest that weights around 60% of total output, the US Agricultural Department said.
Excessive rains and cloudiness in March and April 2021 from La Niña weather phenomena affected the flowering period in some coffee regions, which may impact the October and November harvest. According to the Colombian Institute of Meteorology (IDEAM), rainfall is resuming its historical average in the second quarter of 2021. Normal weather conditions are expected at least until September 2021, the USDA said.
During the first seven months of 2020/21, the Coffee Producers Federation (Fedecafe) reported production is up 2.9% from the previous year, mainly driven by favorable weather conditions and a successfully collected harvest. A shortage of labor due to the COVID-19 pandemic did not materialize as expected. High coffee prices motivated growers to harvest under sanitary protocols, and unemployed people in other sectors affected by the pandemic moved to work in the coffee farms, mitigating the shortage of labor due to containment measures. According to Fedecafe, COVID-19 cases were reported in less than 4% of Colombia’s coffee farms in calendar year (CY) 2020.
There are two peak harvest periods during the calendar year given the presence of two dry and two wet weather seasons. The main harvest period, which takes place during the second part of the year, produces nearly 60 % of total production. The remaining 40% comes from the harvest period in the first part of the year. Production remains strong as a result of a successful replanting program and minimal impact from weather. In the calendar year 2020, the replanting program results, along with the implementation of agronomic best practices, led to the increase of planting density to 5,261 trees per hectare, with productivity at 19.8 bags per hectare, and the average age of coffee plantations at 6.9 years. In 2020, only 61,462 hectares were renovated since there was market uncertainty and increasing production costs due to the pandemic. The replanting area was 24 % below Colombia’s annual goal of renovated hectares (80,000 ha).
If Colombia does not recover the renovated hectares to at least 80,000 per year, current productivity potential, estimated at 14.7 million bags, may decrease.
Fedecafe indicates that 84.1 percent of coffee area is planted with rust resistant varieties, compared to 35 percent in 2010, when weather conditions had devastating effects on coffee production (see Figure 1). According to Fedecafe’s last coffee diseases survey, on average, borer infestation is at 4.5 % and rust levels are at 2.0 %. The Colombian Coffee Research Center (Cenicafe) recently discovered new variants of the fungus that causes coffee rust. Fedecafe is urging producers to plant more resistant coffee varieties given that Colombia’s climate conditions are favorable for coffee rust. Studies show that the incidence of rust in non-resistant varieties is at least 20%, while it is less than 6 percent in resistant varieties.
EXPORTS FALL
Coffee exports are forecast to slightly decrease to 13.5 million bags, driven by lower production levels and increased local demand, yet they are still high due to higher international prices, and the Colombian peso devaluation. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, local prices have jumped to high historical levels. The increase is motivated by higher international prices and the Colombian peso devaluation against the U.S. dollar, which has exacerbated during the last few weeks due to national strikes ($1USD=$3,769COP).
Coffee exports most likely will be impacted by a four-week national strike that drags on. Coffee and other exportable commodities are locked in production zones since cargo vehicles have not been able to transport products in and out of Buenaventura Port, located in the Pacific Ocean. In terms of volume, approximately 70% of Colombia’s coffee exports are shipped from Buenaventura, 25 % from Cartagena port and the remaining 5% from other ports and airports.
According to Fedecafe’s CEO, Colombian coffee exporters have breached export contracts amid protests and roadblocks across the nation, preventing coffee from arriving at ports. As exporters breach contracts, international buyers may not be willing to pay the premium it pays for Colombian coffee. Coffee bean exports represent over 90 % of total exports followed by soluble coffee and roasted coffee. The United States continues to be the major destination for Colombian coffee. The graph below illustrates Colombian coffee exports and market share by destination country over the past five years.
IMPORTS STILL HIGH
In 2021/22, coffee imports are forecast at 1.4 million bags to satisfy the increasing domestic demand. Brazil became the top coffee supplier of Colombian imports, accounting for more than 55% of total imports in 2019/20. Peru was the second supplier with 27% imports followed by Honduras and Ecuador with a 5 and 3% share, respectively. Imports are primarily used to meet the lower end of the domestic market. In2020/21, revised coffee imports are up from 1.2 to 1.4 million bags GBE, based on year to date available data.
CONSUMPTION UP
Meanwhile, coffee consumption continues to increase; however, COVID-19 containment measures have impacted consumption patterns. Consumption is the coffee year 2021/22 is forecast to slightly increase to 2.1 million bags. Revised consumption estimates for MY 2020/21 are up from 1.9 million to 2.0 million bags In 2021/22. The measures to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19 led Colombia to an economic contraction (-6.8% decrease in GDP) that affected household incomes and consumption patterns. However, coffee was one of the few items that saw increased household demand during the pandemic. According to Fedecafe, Colombia’s coffee per capita consumption is estimated at 2.2 kilograms (4.6 pounds), a very low level compared to other countries that consume up to 27 pounds per capita. About 70% of Colombia’s total consumption is roasted and ground coffee, while the remaining 30% is soluble coffee. In recent years, an increasing number of coffee stores boosted Colombia’s coffee consumption, primarily from young professionals and foreign visitors. However, COVID-19 containment measures affected expansion plans of coffee stores. The major players in the Colombian coffee retail market are Juan Valdez, Starbucks, and Café Tostao.
BY Diana Delgado
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
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- Coffee
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