Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
USDA Attache: Costa Rica’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop To Increase 7% to 1.365 Million Bags
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
USDA Attache: Costa Rica’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop To Increase 7% to 1.365 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In the latest report, the USDA notes that ICAFE expects MY 2022/23 production to increase 7 percent to 1,365,000 60-kg bags, as early rains arrived in sufficient volume to support robust flowering in key growing areas. However, with meteorological forecasts for a stronger than normal rainy season, industry sources have expressed concerns about prospects for higher incidence of fungal diseases in MY 2022/23. The sector has also expressed concerns about the higher price of fertilizers, which in May 2022 had doubled since November 2021, as well as the impact of outbound migration from Nicaragua, a key source of labor during harvest, due to political and economic turmoil. Higher input prices could result in lower fertilization and lower application of the necessary agricultural practices needed to maintain current levels of productivity, however, higher prices early in the MY 2022/23 growing season signal a strong return to on-farm investments in fertilization and management practices.
FAS/San José expects general plantation conditions to continue to deteriorate gradually in MY 2022/23, as growers fall further behind the ‘ideal’ plantation renovation plan, which would see a grower replant 5 percent of her / his plantation area per year to completely renovate the plantation every 20 years. Recent strong coffee prices decrease the incentive for farmers to replant (which takes area out of production for three years), and farmers have exhibited reluctance to plant new varieties that may have higher rust[1]resistance or higher yields until they can verify the results on someone else’s land nearby. These two factors, combined with access to credit and available genetic material have contributed to the steady aging of Costa Rica’s plantations, which has also contributed to persistently lower yields.
MY 2021/22 coffee production declined more than previously expected, falling more than 7 percent to 1,275,000 60-kg bags; one of the lowest coffee production levels on record and the lowest in 50 years.
Although the MY 2021/22 rainy season started on time in April 2021 and temperatures were favorable for initial coffee cherry development, subsequent higher than normal precipitation levels contributed to higher incidence of fungal diseases that harmed the young fruit. Continued high moisture levels and high temperatures supported development of fungal diseases, including coffee rust and anthracnose, during the growth stage of the fruit. These conditions were more prevalent in the higher altitude areas, including the main production region of Los Santos, and MY 2021/22 coffee rust levels were the highest since MY 2018/19. Although there are more coffee rust-tolerant varieties available, adoption has been slow given the substantial costs involved in renovating plantations, especially among smaller producers who can least afford to forego income until the new plants begin producing.
The coffee harvest is concentrated in the months of November to February. However, the harvest starts around August in the lower altitude areas and ends in the higher altitude areas.
Area
FAS/San José projects MY 2022/23 area planted to remain largely unchanged at approximately 94,000 hectares (ha). ICAFE estimates MY 2021/22 area planted at 93,697 ha, based on 2017 survey data (the most recent available) and recent satellite images that corroborate the 2017 estimate.
Consumption
FAS/San José projects MY 2022/23 coffee consumption at 420,000 60-kg bags as continued economic recovery supports higher consumption than MY 2021/22. Assuming most imported coffee is consumed locally, FAS/San José estimates MY 2021/22 consumption at 400,000 bags as economic activity recovers. However, with a population of 5.1 million, low levels of legal immigration, and population growth less than one percent per year, FAS/San José does not expect Costa Rican coffee consumption will outpace population growth in the near-term.
According to ICAFE, which keeps track of coffee sales for domestic consumption, excluding coffee imports, sales of domestic coffee amounted to 196,000 60-kg bags during MY 2020/21, the lowest consumption level since MY 1994/95. ICAFE believes the decline in consumption was related to the sharp economic contraction in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, and other coffee-serving outlets were closed during different periods of time or were required to operate under limited conditions. The tourism sector, with over three million foreign visitors per year in 2019, was depressed during most of 2020 and 2021, and is still below pre-pandemic levels. Although the economic situation is improving, domestic coffee prices have increased substantially in MY 2021/22, which could keep consumption levels below pre-pandemic levels.
According to Costa Rica’s National Institute of Statistics and Census, domestic coffee prices in March 2022 had increased 39 percent over March 2021 levels.
Trade
FAS/San José projects MY 2022/23 coffee exports to reach 1,160,000 60-kg bags, the highest level since MY 2015/16, as production volume rebounds and high-quality Costa Rican coffee remains in[1]demand globally. FAS/San José expects export volumes to decline in MY 2021/22, reflecting the lower production, to 1,100,000 60-kg bags. MY 2020/21 export volume reached 1,150,000 bags, valued at $322 million. Coffee exports represented 2.3 percent of Costa Rica’s total export revenue in MY 2020/21.
According to ICAFE, the export price for MY2021/22 coffee through April 2022 has increased nearly 25 percent to an average of $328.9 per bag, although lower production levels are expected to constrain grower profits. The average export price of Costa Rican coffee during MY 2020/21 was $265.4 per bag, a 2 percent rise above the $261.3 per bag average during MY 2019/20.
The United States has been the main destination for Costa Rican exports for several years, though shipments fell 12 percent in MY 2020/21 as exports to other destinations increased.
Costa Rica started to import economically significant volumes of coffee in 2008, primarily from other Central American countries (Honduras and Nicaragua), to meet part of its consumption needs. Since most of Costa Rica’s coffee is priced at a premium in the international markets, most locally produced coffee is exported, with lower priced Costa Rican coffee remaining in the local market. Since 2008, imports have fluctuated widely, responding to local roasters ability to maximize profits through imports based on pricing, availability, and logistics. Close to 99 percent of imported coffee is green coffee for processing by the local roasters.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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