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USDA Attache: Honduras 2023-2024 Coffee Crop Pegged at 7.92 Million Bags

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

USDA Attache: Honduras 2023-2024 Coffee Crop Pegged at 7.92 Million Bags 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The USDA attache report has estimated that Honduras will produce 7.92 million bags for the 2023-2024 crop.

Coffee production for MY2022/23 is forecast to be 7.2 million bags, thirty one percent higher than the previous year estimate for MY2022/23 and gaining similar production trends as in MY2016- 2019. A lower incidence of leaf rust and other diseases is expected to increase coffee production directly by increasing yields and rendering more plants able to produce crops. Harvest Season Weather conditions are forecast to remain favorable for leaf rust starting in the month of May with an average coffee rust incidence of 5.8%, and higher incidence in the departments of La Paz(9.7%), Francisco Morazán (8.2%), Comayagua (6.9%), Copan (6.2%), Cortes (5.9%), Santa Barbara (5.8%), El Paraiso (5.7%) and Olancho (5.2%) A threshold presence of coffee rust of 5-20% indicate a medium level incidence, and a range between 0-5% indicate a low level incident. From the total of coffee farms sampled by IHCAFE during the month of April, 66% of them showed a low-level presence of coffee rust, 29% a medium presence and 5% with a high presence of coffee rust. Most farms show a low incidence of coffee rust due to the fact that the summer conditions are still present in most of the coffee regions in Honduras.

The new coffee production estimate for MY2022/23 is 7.2 million bags, 38% above the previous forecast of 5.2 million bags, among the causes for the production increase are: positive bi-annual harvest, improved plant nutrition, better farm practices, increase in new coffee areas, and new coffee plants entering production. Leaf rust incidence only spiked in May and harvest was delayed about one month, but not impacted and generally is on a yellow moderate-low alert level, since the first months of harvest represent about 1% of the total. About six percent of the MY2022/23 coffee still needs to be harvested and 41% still pending for exports, roasting, and soluble coffee industrialization.

Consumption: According to the International Coffee Organization the World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the COVID-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from nonproducing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

Trade:

Honduras Coffee Exports
FAS Honduras forecasts that the MY2022/23 exports will be 5.5 million bags, an 8 percent increase from the previous year MY2021/22 estimate of 5.1 million bags. The evolution of coffee exports MY2022/23 is 3.26 million bags 60 kg showing a progress of 59% from the harvest season.

According to IHCAFE Exports to date towards May MY2022/2023 totaled 3.2 million bags of 60 kg, showing a percent change increase of 10% compared to the 2.90 million bags registered in the same period of the year 2021-2022. The export volume of 3.2 million 60 kgs bags, is 10 percent higher than the previous year, and the harvest progress is at 59.1% to the month of May waiting for additional progress to be made to September 2023. The average export price is $201.23. During MY 2022/23 to the month of May Honduras has exported to 65 countries 3.26 million 60 kg bags at an average price of $201.23 per bag, a 15% coffee price decrease per bag than $236.08 in MY 2021/2022.

Coffee sales contracts total 4.09 million bags of 60 kg, showing an increase of 12% compared to the 3.75 million bags registered on this same date in MY2021-2022.

Informal Exports
According to IHCAFE, the flow of informal exports is around 300,000 bags to the neighboring countries (El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala). The data is based onobservations made at border offices.

Imports
As reported by the Trade Data Monitor, Honduran imports of Green Bean coffee for domestic consumption in calendar year (CY) 2022 were 7,475 Green Bean Equivalent sacks a 72,983% increase from the CY 2022 previous year, mainly due to lower ending stocks in the previous year, resulting in imports of 5,332 sacks in 2023 from Vietnam, 3,257 from Nicaragua and 178 from Brazil. Honduran imports of roasted coffee for domestic consumption in calendar year (CY) 2022/2023 were 1,052 GBE 60 kg sacks a 107% increase from the previous year of 507 GBE 60 kg sacks and originated mainly from the United States, Colombia, Italy and Guatemala. Juan Valdez Colombian coffee, Starbucks and local artisan roasted coffee are being sold in supermarkets. Coffee shops at malls with local and regional chains like McDonalds are popular. National and International coffee companies like Espresso Americano, Coffee Cup, Nativo and Sigua Coffee sell their soluble coffee in machines locatedin malls and office buildings.

Additionally, soluble coffee is now available in smaller containers at supermarkets, since the price of soluble imported coffee is higher than local coffee. Soluble coffee imports in CY 2022 where 26,608 sacks compared to 20,264 in CY 2021, the year to date imports of soluble coffee to February 2023 are 3,382 sacks originating mainly from Mexico, United States, Colombia, Guatemala and Nicaragua.

Stocks:
Stocks are held by 70 exporters and roasters from the private sector. Ending stocks estimate for MY2021/22 has been adjusted to 238,000 60-kg bags, following a increase in demand from Europe. TheMY2022/23 forecast for ending stocks is 861,000 60-kg bags, a 262% increase compared to MY2021/22.

Alexis Rubinstein

 

  • Coffee

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