Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
USDA Attache: Nicaragua’s 2022-2023 Coffee Pegged at 2.7 Million Bags
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
USDA Attache: Nicaragua’s 2022-2023 Coffee Pegged at 2.7 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In the latest report, the USDA notes FAS/Managua projects MY 2022/23 total coffee production flat at 2.7 million 60-kg bags. Political uncertainty and associated strains on the economy could continue to limit access to finance needed to purchase agrochemical inputs (including fungicides) and fertilizers, the prices of which were significantly higher early in the MY 2022/23 growing season.
Meteorologists are forecasting a more active hurricane season in MY 2022/23 than in MY 2021/22, and intensity and timing of rains are two factors that contribute to higher incidence of coffee rust. Challenging weather as well as reduced applications of fungicide and fertilizer pose considerable risks for MY 2022/23 production.
Industry sources indicate that coffee rust is currently ‘under control,’ as fungicide supplies remain available and prices have not risen nearly as significantly as fertilizer prices. Although there is no official information available, coffee farmers estimate coffee rust prevalence in MY 2021/22 at under five percent. Coffee farmers have introduced rust-resistant coffee varieties, including Marsellesa, Parainema, Costa Rica 95, IH Cafe 90, and Lempira among others. The North Central region was the area most severely affected by coffee rust in MY 2012/13 and MY 2013/14, especially the department of Nueva Segovia. Other departments, such as Matagalpa and Jinotega, were reportedly less affected due to the timely application of fungicides.
Farmers reported sporadic rainfall early in the MY 2021/22 growing season resulting in multiple flowerings of the coffee trees which resulted in an irregular harvest which increased logistical costs associated with labor force since the harvest did not come out at once. According to industry sources, the MY 2021/22 harvest peaking in late November 2021, before the rainy season had ended, negatively affected the final quality of MY 2021/22 crop, as traditional outdoor drying methods were hampered by excess moisture. Industry sources estimate the percentage of the MY 2021/22 crop graded as ‘export quality’ fell from to 90 percent (down from 95 percent in MY 2020/21) as result of challenging post harvest weather conditions.
Area
FAS/Managua projects MY 2022/23 area planted to remain flat at approximately 140,000 hectares, as political turmoil continues to weigh on the economy, fuel outward migration, limit available credit, and stifle investment in productive industries, particularly those with a longer horizon for recouping investments – coffee plantation expansion and renovation (both of which entail new plantings) require at least three years before coffee can be harvested and income generated. FAS/Managua expects area harvested in MY 2022/23 to remain flat as well, though increased outward migration from Nicaragua could negatively affect labor availability during the MY 2022/23 coffee harvest, reducing area harvested and total production. Industry sources attributed challenges securing labor for the 2022 mango export harvest – which should have concluded in early May – to increased outbound migration levels.
Robusta
In 2013, the Government of Nicaragua allowed the cultivation of robusta type coffee in non-traditional coffee growing regions, including the Atlantic coast region. Although robusta production accounts for less than five percent of total production volume, plantations have been growing gradually along the Southern and Northern Atlantic coastal regions as well as some low-altitude areas along the Pacific Coast in the department of Carazo and the area around the El Crucero in the department of Managua.
Industry sources estimate there are approximately 7,000 hectares of robusta plantations, with 4,000 hectares harvested in MY 2021/21. Industry sources estimate total MY 2021/22 robusta production at approximately 120,000 60-kg bags, most of which is destined for domestic consumption in Nicaragua.
Yield
FAS/Managua estimates the MY 2022/23 coffee crop yield to remain at 18 60-kg bags per hectare, consistent with MY 2021/22 and previous years. Increased production of higher-yielding robusta varieties, increased adoption of good agricultural practices, and modest renovation of arabica coffee plantations since MY 2012/13 have contributed to higher yields. FAS/Managua projects limited access to long-term financing – a function of international coffee price volatility, political and economic turmoil in Nicaragua, and an underdeveloped agricultural financial system – will continue to hinder investments in plantation renovation and in adoption of good agricultural practices, limiting Nicaragua coffee yield growth in the near- and mid-term.
Consumption
FAS/Managua estimates MY 2020/21 per capita coffee consumption at about 1.5 kg, of which 50 percent was soluble and 50 percent roasted. Though local purchase of roasted coffee has grown over time, industry sources do not anticipate significant increases in consumption on MY 2022/23 or in MY 2021/22, as high levels of outward migration, increased costs of purchasing basic food commodities, and continued economic headwinds work against expanded consumption.
Stocks
Industry sources estimate coffee exporters maintain year-end stocks of 120,000 - 140,000 60-kg bags, roughly equivalent to the volume of exports in the final quarter of the calendar year, before new crop beans are available for export.
Trade
FAS/Managua estimates Nicaragua’s coffee exports to reach over 2. 5 million 60 KG bags in MY 2022/2023, like MY 2021/2022. The United States and Europe continue to be the main export destinations for Nicaraguan coffee.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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