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USDA Report Recap

Lindsay Fager
Lindsay Fager

Risk Management

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All statements below are directly from the WASDE report document. Some information has been omitted for ease of reading.

 

Soybeans

-U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use.

-Soybean exports are raised mainly reflecting record exports through the first half of the marketing year.

-Soybean crush is reduced this WASDE-611-3 month on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast and a higher projected extraction rate.

-Seed use is reduced in line with plantings for the 2021/22 crop indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report.

-Residual use is reduced based on indications in the March 31 Grain Stocks report.

-Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.

-Higher soybean oil prices are expected to continue in coming months as additional renewable fuel capacity comes online.

-Global soybean production is raised 1.4 million tons to 363.2 million, mainly reflecting a 2-million-ton increase to 136 million for Brazil. Favorable crop conditions in Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and updated harvest results from national and state agencies support higher yields. Partly offsetting is reduced soybean production for the EU-27+UK and Paraguay.

-Global soybean crush is forecast lower mainly on lower crush for China, which is reduced 2 million tons to 96 million on the recent slow crushing pace.

-Global soybean exports are increased 1.2 million tons to 170.9 million. Brazil, Russia, and U.S. exports are revised higher while Paraguay and Ukraine shipments are lowered.

-Global soybean ending stocks are raised 3.1 million tons to 86.9 million, largely on higher stocks for China and Brazil.

 

Corn 

-This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks.

-Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion based on corn stocks reported as of March 1, which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter rose about 6 percent relative to a year ago.

-Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain WASDE-611-2 Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data.

-Exports are increased 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of March that was the largest monthly total on record, surpassing the previous high set in November of 1989. 

 

Wheat

-This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.

-Supplies are lowered with a reduction in projected imports by 10 million bushels to 110 million on a lower than expected import pace with decreases in Durum and Hard Red Spring.

-Domestic consumption is reduced primarily on less implied feed and residual use as well as a small reduction in seed use.

-The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, indicated less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters. As a result, annual 2020/21 feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.

-Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are still 17 percent below last year.

-Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks continue to be large and domestic corn prices in China remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further increase China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a record 40.0 million. 

-Stocks in China in 2020/21 are projected to decline for the first time in eight years (or since 2012/13).

 

FULL DOCUMENT TEXT HERE

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