USDA Report Recap

By: Lindsay Fager, Risk Management

Thu, 10 Jun 2021, 15:57

All statements below are directly from the WASDE report document. Some information has been omitted for ease of reading.

Soybeans

-This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks.

-Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21.

-Soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175 billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher soybean meal imports.

-Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market.

-Conversely, soybean oil domestic disappearance is increased 225 million pounds, reflecting strong consumption to date.

-With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.

-Global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 92.6 million, driven by higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil.

-Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 137.0 million, mainly on higher yields for Mato Grosso do Sul.

Corn

-This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning and ending stocks.

-Beginning stocks are down 150 million bushels reflecting projected increases for 2020/21 in corn used for ethanol and exports.

-Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and weekly ethanol production and refiner and blender net inputs data during May which indicate demand is almost back to levels seen prior to COVID-19.

-Exports are raised 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of May that implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, despite high prices.

-With no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are lowered 150 million bushels.

-This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, marginally higher trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month.

-Brazil corn production for 2020/21 is reduced on lower yield expectations for second-crop corn, based on below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during the month of May. Partly offsetting is greater indicated area for the second and third crops.

-Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger forecast barley exports for the EU with increased imports for China.

-For 2020/21, Brazil’s corn exports are lowered for the marketing year beginning March 2021.

-Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised relative to last month, mostly reflecting increases for Pakistan and South Africa that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.

Wheat

-The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower stocks.

-Supplies are raised as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks.

-The all wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month.

-Beginning stocks declined due to higher 2020/21 exports, which were raised 20 million bushels to 985 million, primarily on larger recent monthly exports.

-Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively with corn in the summer months.

-Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 770 million, down 10 percent from the revised 2020/21 ending stocks.

-The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million tons to 1,087.9 million, mainly on higher production for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world production is projected at a record 794.4 million.

-Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 296.8 million with China accounting for 48 percent of the total.

FULL DOCUMENT TEXT HERE

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