USDA Revises 2024-2025 Global Balance Sheet, Sees 6.9 Million Bag Surplus
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Today, the USDA published their biannual World Coffee Report, which issued a revised forecast for 2024-2025 global coffee production and demand.
The USDA now sees global production at 174.9 million bags, a 1.34 million bags decrease from the previous forecast of 176.24 million bags issued in June. This is also 6.9 million bags higher from the 2023-2024 coffee year.
Demand is seen at 168 million bags, 2.6 million bags lower from the previous forecast of 170.6 million bags and a 5 million bags higher year on year.
Based on the new estimates, the USDA now sees a global supply surplus of 6.9million bags, compared to June’s estimate of 5.64 million bags.
World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast 6.9 million bags higher than the previous year to 174.9 million due primarily to rebounding output in Vietnam and Indonesia. World exports are forecast modestly higher as gains in Vietnam and Indonesia more than offset reduced shipments from Brazil. Global consumption is expected to rise 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and China. Ending stocks are expected to drop 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million.
Brazil combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at 66.4 million bags, up just 100,000 bags from the previous year. Arabica output is forecast 500,000 bags higher to 45.4 million while the Robusta harvest is expected to slip 400,000 bags to 21.0 million. Drought and high temperatures during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. With nearly flat output, coffee bean exports are forecast to drop 2.6 million bags to 40.5 million due primarily to last year’s inventory drawdown, which lowered total supplies.
Vietnam production is forecast to recover 2.6 million bags to 30.1 million but remain below the 2021/22 record crop. The beginning of the rainy season got off to a dry start and was followed by below-average precipitation and temperatures in many of the major growing areas. Whereas similar conditions lowered yields and output the previous 2 harvests, growers this year responded to higher coffee prices by picking as much as possible rather than omitting smaller, less profitable cherries. Bean exports are forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million on higher available supplies.
Colombia Arabica production is forecast up 100,000 bags to 12.9 million on favorable growing conditions and improving yields. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 200,000 bags to 10.9 million on slightly higher supplies and sustained demand.
Central America and Mexico production is forecast 600,000 bags higher to 17.0 million, with Arabica accounting for 95 percent of output. Honduras is expected 300,000 bags higher to 5.3 million and Nicaragua is expected to gain 300,000 bags to 2.7 million on improved yields. Production is expected flat in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Panama. Bean exports for the region are forecast up 800,000 bags to 13.7 million, fueled by higher supplies in Honduras and Nicaragua.
Indonesia combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast to rebound nearly 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million. Robusta output is expected to recover 2.7 million bags to 9.5 million on favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java where approximately 75 percent is grown. Last year’s crop suffered from excessive rain during cherry development and caused sub-optimal conditions for pollination. Arabica production is seen rising slightly to 1.4 million bags. Elevated output is expected to translate to exports gaining 2.2 million bags to 6.5 million.
European Union imports are forecast up 1.0 million bags to 45.0 million due to higher shipments from Vietnam and Indonesia. Top suppliers in 2023/24 included Brazil (43 percent), Vietnam (22 percent), Uganda (7 percent), and Honduras (6 percent). Ending stocks are expected to continue sliding to 8.0 million bags.
The United States imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast to gain 800,000 bags to 22.3 million on rising consumption. Top suppliers in 2023/24 included Brazil (32 percent), Colombia (20 percent), Vietnam (8 percent), and Honduras (7 percent). Ending stocks are forecast unchanged at 5.7 million bags.
Revisions to 2023/24 Forecasts
World production is lowered 1.2 million bags from the June 2024 estimate to 168.0 million.
• Vietnam is reduced 1.6 million bags to 27.5 million as drought and high temperatures lowered yields.
• Colombia is up 600,000 bags to 12.8 million as coffee cherry borer insect infestations were not as severe as anticipated.
World bean exports are raised 200,000 bags to 119.8 million.
• Brazil is up 1.6 million bags to 43.1 million on higher-than-anticipated stocks drawdown.
• Vietnam is reduced 2.3 million bags to 22.6 million on lower exportable supplies.
World ending stocks are reduced 1.6 million bags to 22.3 million.
• Brazil is lowered 1.2 million bags to 1.7 million on higher shipments.
• European Union is reduced 900,000 bags to 8.0 million on lower imports.




