Daily Coffee Report 6/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
CONAB Reduces Brazil’s 2025 Coffee Crop Forecast to 55.2 Million Bags
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – With 96% of the coffee area already harvested at the end of August, the 2025 coffee harvest for Brazil is estimated at 55.2 million bags, down slightly from the previous forecast of 55.7 million bags. Even though this year is characterized by being a low biennial cycle, the estimated volume points to a growth of 1.8% compared to the result obtained in 2024. This data was reported today, in the 3rd survey of the crop by the National Supply Company (Conab).
The estimated coffee production in 2025 is influenced by the 3% recovery in crop productivity in the national average, from 28.8 bags per hectare in 2024 to 29.7 bags per hectare this year. It is important to remember that in 2024, a year of positive bienniality, the performance of crops was impaired due to the climatic adversities recorded in several producing regions. The area in production for the current cycle is estimated at 1.86 million hectares, a reduction of 1.2% compared to 2024, while the area under formation registers an increase of 11.9%, and may reach 395.8 thousand hectares. As a result, the total area destined for coffee cultivation in 2025, considering the Arabica and Conilon species both in production and in formation, is 2.25 million hectares, which represents a growth of 0.9% compared to the previous year.
The production of Arabica coffee is estimated at 35.2 million processed bags, which represents a reduction of 11.2% compared to the previous harvest. This drop is mainly explained by the low biennial cycle associated with the reduction in the area under production. Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing state in the country, concentrates the largest area with the species, totaling 1.38 million hectares, equivalent to 75.2% of the national area of Arabica. In the state of Minas Gerais, production is estimated at 24.7 million bags, a reduction of 10.8% in relation to the total volume produced in the previous harvest. In addition to the negative biennial, the record of a long period of drought in the months prior to flowering influences the expected drop.
In the case of conilon, production is estimated at 20.1 million bags, an increase of 37.2% compared to the previous harvest. This result is attributed to the better climatic regularity during the critical phases of the crops, which favored part of the flowering, and to the good formation of cherries, especially in Espírito Santo, which represents 69% of the conilon production in the country. In the state of Espírito Santo, a harvest of 13.8 million bags of this species is expected, an increase of 40.3% compared to the previous harvest. This increase is justified by the good rainfall observed in the north of the state, which benefited the conilon crops.
Another important producing state, Bahia should register an improvement of 33.5% in the total production of the grain (Arabica and Conilon), estimated at 4.1 million bags throughout the state. Such growth is due to the entry of new crops into production, with high productivity and irrigated management, especially in the Atlantic region, where the conilon species predominates, and in the Bahian Cerrado. In the conilon species, which represents 72% of coffee production in Bahia, there is a significant growth of 51.2%, with the expected production volume of 2.95 million bags. The Arabica species shows a growth of 2.4%, expected at 1.1 million bags. Rondônia is also expected to register an increase of 10.4% in the harvest compared to the last harvest, with an estimated production of 2.3 million bags in 2025.
Market – Brazil exported 23.7 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee from January to July 2025, which represents a reduction of 16.4% compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). Despite the reduction in the annual comparison, the amount exported in the first seven months of 2025 is the third highest ever recorded in Brazil, compared to the same period in previous years. This reduction in the volume of coffee exported by Brazil in the first months of 2025 was already expected, being influenced by the restriction of domestic stocks after the export record in 2024 and the limitation of arabica production in the ongoing harvest.
In the same period, Brazilian coffee exports in the first seven months of 2025 totaled around US$ 9 billion, which represents an increase of 44.1% compared to the same period in 2024 and corresponds to the highest value ever recorded for the period, compared to previous years. The rise in international coffee prices, especially in the first two months of the year, favored this increase in exports in value, even with the drop in the volume shipped in the period.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 6/11/26
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