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Daily Coffee Report 3/5/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures traded without much conviction for most of the session, remaining locked in their familiar range across both terminals until late in the day. After the settlement window, a wave of buying in the New York terminal finally pushed May futures through the 290 level, closing above the 20‑day moving average (291.70). This marks a breakout from a more than two‑week consolidation, with spec buying moving into a vacuum of origin selling and encountering minimal resistance.

NY will now need sustained follow‑through above 300—the level where the early‑February rally failed—to confirm a broader shift in momentum. For now, managed money appears hesitant: adding new shorts at these levels has become less attractive as replacement values have risen sharply over the past month, and no near‑term improvement is expected until the arrival of Brazil’s new crop.

Layered onto this is the inflationary pressure tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which continues to elevate freight costs and disrupt global fertilizer flows. This has pushed many money managers to look toward energy and agricultural commodities as part of a broader macro‑inflation trade in response to geopolitical risk.

Market structure strengthened alongside flat price. The Arabica May/July spread gained 40 points to close at a 5.45 premium, while further down the curve, July/Sep and Sep/Dec saw buying interest, rallying 90 and 40 points respectively.

In options, we saw call‑spread activity in Arabica outrights today:

Paper bought 400x July26 2026 300/350 call spread at 1.71

Paper bought 500x July26 450/650 call spread at 0.57

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

33,803

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

14,165

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

336

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
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