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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-4-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251204084653-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month nat gas prices rose 3% Wednesday as bitter cold moving through the eastern US boosted heating demand while LNG flows remained near record highs. The Jan contract broke through psychological resistance at $5.00 before settling at $4.955, up 15.5 cents on the day. 

Temps across the central and eastern US are currently much below normal with the coldest conditions occurring in the NE.  The 6-10 day outlook features continued cold across the NE and Mid-Atlantic regions while above normal temps across the West expand into the SW and South Central US.  

image 123493

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Robust production is helping keep pace with demand.  Production levels are averaging more than 4 BCF/day from last year. Output ended November just below a record 109 BCF/day but has since fallen to 107.8 BCF/day.  

image 123494

Source: StoneX

Today’s storage report is expected to show a lower than normal withdrawal of 18 BCF for the week ended Nov 28.  This compares to last year’s pull of 26 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 43 BCF.  If the estimate is correct, stocks would fall to 3.917 TCF.  

This week’s surge in heating demand is likely to result in the season’s first triple draw. Estimates for the week in progress suggest a pull of 112 BCF which falls in between last year’s draw of 167 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 89 BCF. 

image 123495Source: NOAA

 Despite a 6 BCF/day increase in heating demand, spot month gas prices are trading lower as the 5 yr avg surplus is expected to increase in today's report. 

image-20251204084814-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The January 26 natural gas contract rallied up to a new 3+ year high on Wednesday at 5.038 closing the day at 4.995, up .115 (3.2%).

The market continues to relentless grind higher with the 50% retracement resistance on the January 26 daily chart broken Wednesday at 4.950.

This turns the 61.8% retracement of the March-October downtrend at 5.200 into the next upside objective.

4.800 is near term support followed closely by the 10-day moving average currently at 4.720.

Trend following indicators on the 60-minute chart continue to show bearish divergences (higher price high, lower index high) possibly indicating a near term pullback in prices.

Moving Average Alignment - Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 70.38 (in overbought area)

image 123501

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123499

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123500

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123292

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 123498

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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