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December 2025 Market Seasonality – Will We See a “Santa Claus Rally” in Stocks?
By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
December Seasonality Key Points
- Historically, December has been a strong month for US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of +1.3% over the last 35 years.
- December has historically been a month where stock market volatility edges higher, with the VIX index rising by an average of 1.2% since 1990.
- After a breakout from consolidation to start the month, the technical, fundamental and seasonal biases all point to the potential for more upside.
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the markets since 1990.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Seasonality – S&P 500 (Price-Only) Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, December has been a strong month for US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of +1.3% over the last 35 years. After a mid-month swoon, November finished essentially flat, keeping the post-Liberation Day uptrend intact heading into December. With little on the earnings front this month, the focus will be on (delayed) macroeconomic data and the FOMC meeting on December 10, where a 25bps interest rate cut is widely expected. One other factor to monitor is the potential for a “Santa Claus Rally,” a topic I recently discussed on the Trading Global Macro podcast with John Kicklighter.
Nasdaq 100 Seasonality – NDX (Price-Only) Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Volatility Index Seasonality – VIX Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Gold Seasonality – XAU/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WTI Crude Oil Seasonality – WTI Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major markets and the global economy.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
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