Kansas City Wheat Report
Kansas City Wheat Report
Mike O'Dea
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 17
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
February 17 - Stocks were largely under pressure this morning, led by the tech sector, while the financial sector performed better. AI worries continue to weigh on the tech sector as we move into the last half of February. Yet, stocks were generally well off their session lows by midday, with the VIX slipping lower to trade near 21. The dollar index rallied to trade near 97.3 at midday, although that was off its session highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.05%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.43%, with both near their session highs after probing new multi-month lows earlier in the day. Crude oil prices are more than 1% lower as Iran talks of good progress in its negotiations with the United States. Wheat prices led corn lower today, while soybeans reverse early losses to post modest gains.
The National Association of Home Builders housing market index slipped to 36 for February. The February survey revealed that 36% of builders cut prices this month, down from 40% last month, which is the lowest incidence for doing so since May. The average price cut was 6%. Sales incentives were used 65% of the time this month, the 11th consecutive month that the number has topped 60%. The single family sales present day was unchanged this month at 41, but that's down from 46 a year ago. The single-family index for six months out fell to 46, down from 49 the previous month, and down slightly from 47 the previous year. The traffic of prospective buyers index dropped to a very low 22, down from 24 the previous month, and down from 29 a year ago. The best numbers are in the Northeast and Midwest, while the weakest scores are in the West.
USDA inspected 58.8 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending February 12, along with 44.2 million bushels of soybeans, 13.8 million bushels of wheat, and 9.5 million bushels of grain sorghum. All of the grain sorghum was inspected for shipment to China, along with 25.1 million bushels of soybeans. No corn or wheat were inspected for shipment to China. Marketing year to date corn export inspections total 1.406 billion bushels, up 432 million bushels or 44% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record large export target by 313 million bushels, up from 301 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 895 million bushels, down 429 million bushels or 32% from the previous year's pace. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 173 million bushels, but that gap was at 183 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections total 651 million bushels, up 103 million bushels or 19% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, down from 61 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date grain sorghum export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 30 million bushels, but the deficit is slowly shrinking.
The National Oil Processers Association reports that its members crushed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans in January, down from 224.991 million the previous month, but up from 200.383 million bushels the previous year. Last month's total was a bit of a surprise for the industry that expected a bigger drop off due to extreme cold late in the month, combined with some winter weather. That brings NOPA soybean crush for the first five months of the marketing year to 1.088 billion bushels, which exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year by 49 million bushels, up from 40 million the previous month. NOPA crush generally accounts for about 95% of total crush, but it was closer to 98% in November and December. USDA projects this year's soybean crush to reach 2.570 billion bushels, up from 2.445 billion the previous year. My target has been at 2.645 billion bushels, but I may be too low.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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