Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 26 Feb 2026, 17:09

February 26 – Wall Street can’t seem to make up its mind following another round of impressive earnings from chip giant Nvidia after the close yesterday, with optimism overnight running out as the session progresses. Nvidia stock is down roughly 4.5% at the time of writing, helping drag down the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-1.5%) to lead the major indexes lower at midday, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.8%) and Dow Jones (-0.2%). Traders will get more insight into the health of the tech sector with Intuit, Dell, and CoreWeave among a long list of earnings reports due out later today. Nerves appear to be running relatively high on Wall Street again today as the VIX rebounds, pushing above 20.5 earlier in the session but now hovering around 19.5 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the dollar is having another quiet session, as it has all week, slightly in the green to hover around the 97.8 level. Treasuries are similarly quiet, though narrowly in the red, with 10-year yields trading at 4.025% and 2-year yields trading at 3.452%. Crude oil is seeing an expectedly volatile session today amid the resumption of U.S./Iran negotiations, with nearby WTI falling as low as $63.60 this morning but now rising to trade around $66.50 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with the grain & oilseeds trading both sides of unchanged through the morning, though perhaps the most notable development is the sharp selloff being seen in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Simmering geopolitical tensions remain front-of-mind throughout the broader markets as traders closely monitor today’s talks between the U.S. and Iran amid the ongoing buildup of military equipment in the region. At the same time, U.S. and Ukrainian officials are meeting again today in Geneva, with Russia’s RIA this morning reporting that special envoy Kirill Dmitriev has also arrived in Geneva and may meet with U.S. officials as well. Closer to home in the States, a shootout in Cuban waters between the Cuban Coast Guard and Cuban exiles on a Florida-registered speedboat that reportedly left four dead, and more wounded, is making headlines. Tensions between the U.S. and Cuba have already been rising in the wake of Cuban ally Nicolas Maduro’s capture and the subsequent blocking of oil shipments to the island that has deepened the nation’s energy crisis. The U.S. Treasury Department said yesterday it would authorize the resale of Venezuelan oil to private sector buyers in Cuba, a move that could help ease these shortages but potentially draw the ire of the ruling communist party. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted the U.S. is still in fact-finding mode regarding this incident, but it looks like the markets may have another theatre of interconnected geopolitical tensions to keep an eye on moving forward. Russia calling the incident an “aggressive provocation by the U.S.” makes this incident feel less independent from the others, increasing the complexity.

The manufacturing sector saw unexpected strength in this morning’s release from the Kansas City Fed, with their Manufacturing Production Index surging higher to a reading of 10 in February, a notable rebound from -2 in January and the best reading for the index since November. The improvement was broad-based, with future activity expectations rising, employment outlooks improving, and price pressures cooling slightly. Digging into the details, one of the biggest standouts was the sharp rise in volume of new orders, rising to its highest level since May 2022. A very succinct quote from the February survey included in this morning’s release that stood out to me was “plenty of uncertainty yet also incredible opportunities.” This feels like a great way to summarize the current economic situation more broadly.

USDA reported daily flash sales of 178,000 metric tons (~7 million bushels) of new crop corn to Japan this morning, with 154,000 metric tons (6.06 million bushels) for the ‘26/’27 marketing year and the remaining 24,000 metric tons (0.94 million bushels) for the ‘27/’28 marketing year. Perhaps more notable in this week’s flash sales reporting is what’s still missing—fresh soybean sales to China. It’s now been over three weeks since the social media post from President Trump suggesting increased Chinese soybean purchases that reignited the rally in the complex; since that day, March soybean futures have gained ~$0.80/bushel. However, China has only appeared in the daily flash sales once since then—back on 2/9. It was no surprise to see China absent last week amid Lunar New Year festivities, but with buyers now back at work, we’ll need to eventually see something more concrete than rumors or speculative length may begin to get nervous. At the same time though, more near-term focus may be on the domestic demand side of things with the gears finally turning to bring us long-awaited finalized policy guidance from the EPA in the weeks ahead. Realized soy crush demand thus far in the ‘25/’26 marketing year is already sharply ahead of schedule relative to USDA’s expectations, with cumulative NOPA crush for September – January up 11.4% year-over-year and USDA looking for only a 5.1% yearly rise. Favorable policy could keep support under that trend and improve prospects for longer-term demand that would make the U.S. soy market less dependent on China. The chart below highlights this trend of growing importance for the domestic soy crush sector, now accounting for over 60% of annual U.S. soybean demand.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 18

June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.

Arlan SudermanThu, 18 Jun 2026, 13:29

Grains & Oilseeds
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European Crop Recovery Masks Growing Weather Risks Ahead

Improving crop conditions across Europe have eased immediate supply concerns, but weather remains a critical variable for grain markets. Recent rains have supported crop recovery, yet shrinking maize acreage and renewed heat risks suggest production forecasts may still face meaningful challenges in the months ahead.

Editorial TeamWed, 17 Jun 2026, 15:24

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 17

June 17 – Stock futures consolidated overnight in relatively quiet trade. It’s Fed Day on Wall Street as war headlines begin to calm, with investors focused on this afternoon’s statement and press conference from the Federal Reserve after incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh chairs his first set of policy meetings. The VIX is still trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.06%, as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten amid lingering inflation worries. WTI crude oil dropped to a fresh 15-week low this morning at $74.59 per barrel, before bouncing to trade near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly firmer overnight, with wheat prices leading the way higher amid adverse European weather.

Arlan SudermanWed, 17 Jun 2026, 13:33

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