Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 17:49

Today's Perspective Video: Strait of Hormuz Conflict Ripples Through Crop Markets

March 16 - The tech sector continues to lead the equities quietly higher today as Treasury yields leak lower following last week's rally. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 24, while the dollar index is trading near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.68%. Crude oil prices are trading near $95 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker.

Soybean prices posted sharp losses today following comments from the White House stating that President Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing on March 31 may be delayed. The White House indicates that Trump still desires to meet with President Xi, but that he feels that it is important that he be present in Washington to manage the war with Iran on a day to day basis. A delayed summit could therefore translate into a delayed trade agreement. It's also notable that this week's negotiations are talking positive about a lot of other commodities, but there is little to no mention of the anticipated additional 8 million metric tons that President Trump indicated in early February that China might buy in the current marketing year. Add to that a revision in Brazil's inspection guidelines that once again allow soybeans to more freely flow from Brazil to China, and the bears took control of the oilseed market, with losses reaching the 70 cents per bushel daily trading limit early this afternoon.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 208.785 million bushels of soybeans in February, down from 221.564 million bushels the previous month, but up from 177.870 million bushels crushed in the same month last year. NOPA members accounted for a bit more than 97% of all soybean crush in recent months. The average trade guess had been 202.7 million bushels, while I had the highest guess at 205.5 million bushels. Marketing year to date soybean crush now exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 60 million bushels, suggesting that USDA will be under pressure to raise its soybean crush estimate next month.

USDA inspected 65.3 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending March 12, along with 35.5 million bushels of soybeans, 12.6 million bushels of wheat, and 5.0 million bushels of grain sorghum. The grain sorghum was destined for China, along with 20.1 million bushels of the soybeans. No corn or wheat was inspected for shipment to China. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 55 million bushels, down from 59 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date grain sorghum export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 19 million bushels, versus being short by 18 million bushels the previous week.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections total a record for the date of 1.688 billion bushels, up 475 million bushels or 39% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 315 million bushels, although that is down from 323 million bushels the previous week. The seasonal weekly pace tops out near 85 million bushels at times in April, so we may see the surplus shrink somewhat in the weeks ahead, Yet, another bump in the target is still very much at play, especially if the trade deal with China would happen to include some corn. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.031 billion bushels, which is a seven-year low. The total falls short of the previous year's pace by 406 million bushels, or 28.3%. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 137 million bushels, versus falling short by 155 million bushels just a week ago.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 18

June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.

Arlan SudermanThu, 18 Jun 2026, 13:29

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European Crop Recovery Masks Growing Weather Risks Ahead

Improving crop conditions across Europe have eased immediate supply concerns, but weather remains a critical variable for grain markets. Recent rains have supported crop recovery, yet shrinking maize acreage and renewed heat risks suggest production forecasts may still face meaningful challenges in the months ahead.

Editorial TeamWed, 17 Jun 2026, 15:24

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 17

June 17 – Stock futures consolidated overnight in relatively quiet trade. It’s Fed Day on Wall Street as war headlines begin to calm, with investors focused on this afternoon’s statement and press conference from the Federal Reserve after incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh chairs his first set of policy meetings. The VIX is still trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.06%, as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten amid lingering inflation worries. WTI crude oil dropped to a fresh 15-week low this morning at $74.59 per barrel, before bouncing to trade near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly firmer overnight, with wheat prices leading the way higher amid adverse European weather.

Arlan SudermanWed, 17 Jun 2026, 13:33

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