Perspective: Morning Commentary December 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 01 Dec 2025, 14:45

December 1 – Stock futures encountered active selling pressure overnight, as geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment to start the new month. Investors also stepped aside ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, along with upcoming economic data releases, fear that something might be said or released that undermines hopes and expectations of another rate cut. The VIX firmed to trade near 18 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 99.1, marking a two-week low. Crude oil prices were 1% higher on rising geopolitical risks, while the grain and oilseed markets came under renewed selling pressure.

Manufacturing activity was weak in November for much of Europe and in Asia’s biggest economies, according to business survey data released today. The weakness continues to reflect soft domestic demand and tariff uncertainty. Manufacturing activity contracted in the European Union in November, with firms cutting jobs at their highest rate in seven months, while new orders fell in Germany at their fastest pace in 10 months. Heightened competition from China was also a factor for many European manufacturers. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November. New orders improved slightly following the de-escalation of tensions with the United States in late October, but they still remained in contraction territory. Manufacturing product inventory slipped in November, but firms remained wary of building up raw material inventories due to lingering concerns about softening demand. China’s non-manufacturing PMI fell below “50” for the first time in nearly two years in November – indicating month-on-month contraction for the service sector as well. The subindex for new orders fell to 45.6 in November, down from 46 in October and the lowest since February, reflecting rising challenges for China to stabilize the slowdown despite the government’s stimulus programs. China counts on the service sector to absorb excessive labor from manufacturing, so weakness in that sector spells more challenges for China’s labor market at a time when officials are trying to reign in manufacturing overcapacity.

These challenges are part of the reason that I am a bit more cautiously optimistic about Chinese buying of soybeans and other Ag and energy commodities in the months ahead. I am still a skeptic when it comes to China following through on commitments, but its efforts to subsidize economic growth during this tariff war with the United States are falling short, while building a much larger national debt problem. I am not among those forecasting a collapse of China, but I do believe that its challenge in sustaining this battle with President Trump are growing. China knows that Trump is a relative “short timer” in the big picture of things. He cannot serve more than three more years, and several factors could reduce that time of his impact, such as the mid-term elections and upcoming court decisions – looking at it from China’s perspective. As such, President Xi Jinping appears to have shifted his strategy to one of “getting along” in the near-term so that he can still be around to pursue his longer-term goals for China’s presence in the world after Trump is no longer a factor here in the States. That means that we must respect the possibility that China will display a higher level of follow through in this trade agreement with the United States than what we’ve seen from previous agreements. All of this could still fall apart via spats over Taiwan or rare earth minerals and magnets, but both sides appear to be on a path of trying to “get along” for the time being to reduce “uncertainties” faced by both countries and the rest of the world.

China’s MyAgri projects China’s corn imports to increase to 3 million metric tons this marketing year, up from 1.82 mmt the previous year, but below China’s official estimate of 6 mmt, and below USDA’s estimate of 8 mmt. MyAgri expects China’s domestic corn consumption to peak this year, dropping in the coming calendar year. It projects feed use (two-thirds of demand) to drop by 2.4% on the year, while industrial use rebounds by 2.5%. Surplus corn stocks are expected to fall by another 6.16 mmt in the current year, following a drop of 20.85 mmt the previous year. USDA shows a decline of 37.3 mmt or 1.468 billion bushels over the two-year period. This shows the potential for Chinese buying IF China would decide to maintain or rebuild its reserve levels to appease President Trump, although we still see little evidence of corn buying. Much of the focus of Chinese buying to this point has been soybeans, wheat and grain sorghum.

Traders return from the Thanksgiving holiday today, but that doesn’t mean that we return to regular trading dynamics. The period between Thanksgiving and the New Year holiday is known for its sluggish market tendencies, although there are plenty of factors that could change that this year. We should learn a lot in the weeks ahead about China’s purchasing intentions as well as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s final regulations on the biofuel program. Those two factors will set the table for whether we’re looking at a bearish commodity outlook going forward, or one that shows more upside potential.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 26

June 26 – Chip stocks weighed on stock futures overnight, contributing to general weakness across the board as Iran tries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz once again, testing the fragility of the ceasefire. The VIX elevated to trade near 21 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.10% as the yield curve steepens a bit this morning. WTI crude oil traded back below $70 per barrel this morning, as Brent traded near $73, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker as well ahead of the weekend.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 13:41

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 25

June 25 - Stocks added to their gains early today, but the tech sector struggled to hold those gains as the morning progressed. This morning's inflation data came in pretty close to expectations - no surprises there. Other data showed the economy remaining relatively resilient through the war with Iran, with investors now expecting lower inflation expectations down the road, even as consumer spending remains solid. The VIX is trading just below 19 late morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.3 as it pulls back from 13-month highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, reflecting nearly seven-week lows, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.11%. WTI crude oil bounced off lows below $69 this morning to trade near $72 currently, while Brent trades near $75 per barrel. Prices rallied on news reports that a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile while traveling through the Strait of Hormuz near the coast of Oman. Several ships turned around, reportedly being warned to do so by Iran. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly higher at midday, with double-digit gains for soybeans amid a rebound in product prices.

Arlan SudermanThu, 25 Jun 2026, 16:16

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 25

June 25 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, led by the tech sector, ahead of a plethora of key economic data released this morning, including durable goods orders for May and PCE inflation data. That data gave another initial modest push to those gains when released. The VIX is trading below 18 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 101.6. Yields on 20-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil made new post-war lows this morning below $69 per barrel on reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed, with corn and wheat prices again under modest pressure while soybeans posted modest gains.

Arlan SudermanThu, 25 Jun 2026, 13:32

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