CBOT Grains Daily Options Report
Recap of day's options activity and data.
PJ Quaid
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary March 13
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
March 13 – It’s day #14 of the Iran war. Stock futures firmed overnight, despite the ongoing war with Iran completing its second week. The VIX is trading near 25 this morning, still below Monday’s spike to 35, but the overall trend toward greater levels of anxiety in the markets continues. The dollar index is trading near 100.0 as it moves upward to a new three-month plus high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.25% after hitting a fresh one-month high, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.70% after hitting a six-month high on Thursday. Crude oil prices remain quite volatile, trading near $93 per barrel this morning, after President Trump eased restrictions on Russian oil, while the grain and oilseed markets were mixed to weaker overnight.
Commodities drive the economy! Otherwise you have trouble explaining the markets of the past two weeks. The supply of commodities hasn’t changed much over the past couple of weeks, but the flow and distribution of some commodities has changed. Few people thought it possible that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and products pass, along with an even greater share of fertilizer, but Iran did so. Iran didn’t use a naval blockade to do it, but it did use a stronger weapon – fear. Iran merely did enough to create fear for any tankers that might attempt to pass through the Strait. That was sufficient to make insurance costs surge to impractically high levels as well. The White House worked with insurance companies to remove that obstacle, but shippers remain afraid to risk passage, particularly since some ships have already been hit in the region. Crude storage facilities are filling up, resulting in wells being shut down. It will take weeks to restart those wells once the Strait reopens, which I believe that it soon will do, although we still have no indication of that.
Roughly a fifth of the world’s exported crude oil passed through the Strait prior to the war. That number is essentially near zero now. Saudi Arabia is redirecting supplies to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, where 4.5 mbpd can be loaded, up about 2 mbpd from previous levels, lowering the deficit to roughly 14 mbpd. A coordinated release of reserve supplies from various nations can reduce that number just below 10 mbpd. That still leaves a significant shortfall. One of the primary concerns now is a shortage of fuel for freighters. Fuel is being prioritized toward the highest value freight haulers, with tankers carrying energy products at the top of that list, while dry bulk carriers are near the bottom of the list. Freight costs are surging for everyone. There’s also a fear that soaring global fertilizer prices will negatively impact application rates for the 2026 growing season, resulting in lower production, reducing supplies of food-based commodities. All those fears begin to slowly go away if the Strait reopens next week, but they’re still there today. Commodity prices are rising, leading to inflation expectations, which in turn channels more speculative money into the food and energy commodities, adding further to the cost. The fear that inflation will stagnate the domestic and global economy continues to create headwinds for U.S. and global stocks. Again, that trend remains in place as long as the Strait is closed, fueling the fear.
The latest threat is that Iran would mine the Strait of Hormuz. That’s possible, but keep in mind that crude oil exports are the life blood of Iran. Mines don’t detect the color of flags of approaching ships – they’re indiscriminate. As such, Iran has incentive not to mine the Strait until/unless it believes that its defeat is a foregone conclusion. Then it might decide to do as much damage as possible before going down. That’s why I still believe that we’ll see Israel and the United States seek to secure Kharg Island, where most of Iran’s exports are initiated, followed by action to reopen the Strait as it becomes safe to do so. In the meantime, fear will continue to rule in the region.
Personal income rose by 0.4% in January, below the 0.5% expected, but above the previous 0.3% pace. Personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.4% in January, matching the previous month, but above expectations of 0.3%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% in January, matching expectations, but down from 0.4% in December. The PCE price index rose by 2.4% on the year in January, down from expectations of 2.9%. The core PCE price index rose by 0.4% in January, matching the previous month and matching expectations, while rising 2.7% on the year, down from expectations of 3.0%. The headline numbers will certainly rise once the March numbers are reported next month, due to the war. Durable goods orders were flat on the month in January, below expectations of 0.5% growth. December orders were revised to -0.9%, versus the -1.4% originally reported. Durable goods orders minus transportation rose by 0.4% in January, down from expectations of 1.3%, and down from the 0.9% previously reported. Core capital goods orders were also flat in January, down from 0.8% growth in December. Fourth quarter 2025 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.7%, down from the previously reported 1.4%. Personal consumption expenditures in the fourth quarter grew at a 2.0% pace, down from the 2.4% pace previously reported.
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