Perspective: Morning Commentary March 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 13:41

March 16 – Stock futures rebounded overnight as we move into day #17 of the war with Iran. The VIX continues to hover around 25 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 100.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.68%. Crude oil prices are trading near $94 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed markets came under pressure after President Trump stated that he may delay his scheduled March 31 summit with Chinese President Xi.

Negotiators from both China and the United States started several days of meetings to iron out an agreement ahead of their scheduled heads-of-state meeting in Beijing. Relations were described as “remarkably stable” in the talks as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng lead the talks. China reportedly indicated that it remains committed to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans in each of the next three years in keeping with the handshake agreement reached on October 30, 2025. The Chinese indicated an openness to purchasing additional U.S. Ag commodities, including poultry, beef, and non-soybean row crops. That opens the door for the possibility of China increasing purchases of grain sorghum, and possibly corn. China doesn’t need the corn, but it does have room in its reserves for corn. Its reserve levels of corn have been working lower, but it also has massive supplies of older feed-quality wheat and rice in its reserves that it could push into the feed stream if it needed to do so. Yet it would likely be easier for it to increase imports of corn at this point than soybeans, so that “may” be the direction that it chooses to go. But the markets reacted more overnight to a comment that Trump made to the Financial Times about the possibility of delaying his trip to Beijing in order to get assistance from China in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Other reports suggested that it might not be an optimal time to be in Beijing while trying to manage the war in Iran. Either way, a delayed summit suggests a delayed trade agreement.

The talks also focused on keeping the flow of rare earth minerals and magnets flowing toward the United States, while also discussing other avenues to boost trade and investment. The two sides reportedly discussed establishing a “Board of Trade” that would focus on finding products and sectors where they could grow trade in a balanced way without sacrificing national security concerns or threatening critical supply chains. They also discussed establishing a “Board of Investment” to address “discrete investment issues” that might emerge between the two countries from time to time. Keep in mind that Trump and Xi need each other over the coming months. President Trump needs to calm uncertainty in the U.S. economy ahead of the midterm elections, while President Xi needs to jumpstart his economy to shore up his support among other powerful leaders in the Chinese Communist Party whose pocketbooks do best when China’s economy is doing better. This provides a window of opportunity for Ag & energy trade in the months ahead – more for political reasons than economic reasons.

Chinese retail sales rose 2.8% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, beating market expectations of 2.5%, and up from 0.9% growth in December. Strength in sales was largely tied to the annual extended Lunar New Year holiday, with catering up 4.8% on the year, and cigarettes and liquor sales up 19.1%. However, some big-ticket items, along with other products, aren’t doing so well. For example, auto sales were down 7.3% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, which is an acceleration of the 5.0% decline in December. Home appliance sales, that have been heavily subsidized, grew at just a 3.3% rate, after rising by 11% in 2025. Furniture sales are another area where declining growth is seen – coming in at 8.8%, down from 14.6% in 2025. Telecommunications and digital device sales grew at a 17.8% pace, down from 20.9% in December. Subsidies are losing their impact. However, real estate investment fell 11.1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive year of contraction, with property sales by area dropping 13.5%, and sales by value falling 20.2%, with both showing an acceleration in the decline.

Brazil’s Ag Ministry changed the rules for inspection of soybean cargoes headed to China, according to Reuters. Officials had originally tightened up inspections at the request of China, resulting in some cargoes being rejected due to foreign material found in the shipments. That resulted in Cargill reportedly backing out of loading cargoes destined for China from some port facilities in Brazil in a move seemingly designed to force Brazil and China to work out the problem. Details of this morning’s reported changes are still lacking, but it appears that Cargill’s move worked in getting reform to the new rules. Cargill is the largest hauler of soybeans to China. Money flow to the grain and oilseeds has tended to be positive whenever crude oil prices are rising due to the Iran war, but to turn negative when crude oil prices pull back. However, today’s weakness in the soybean complex appears tied more to the above China story. Kansas City wheat maintains strength based on damaging cold in the Southern Plains overnight that will be replaced by searing heat in the mid-90s by the end of the week.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 18

June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.

Arlan SudermanThu, 18 Jun 2026, 13:29

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European Crop Recovery Masks Growing Weather Risks Ahead

Improving crop conditions across Europe have eased immediate supply concerns, but weather remains a critical variable for grain markets. Recent rains have supported crop recovery, yet shrinking maize acreage and renewed heat risks suggest production forecasts may still face meaningful challenges in the months ahead.

Editorial TeamWed, 17 Jun 2026, 15:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 17

June 17 – Stock futures consolidated overnight in relatively quiet trade. It’s Fed Day on Wall Street as war headlines begin to calm, with investors focused on this afternoon’s statement and press conference from the Federal Reserve after incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh chairs his first set of policy meetings. The VIX is still trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.06%, as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten amid lingering inflation worries. WTI crude oil dropped to a fresh 15-week low this morning at $74.59 per barrel, before bouncing to trade near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly firmer overnight, with wheat prices leading the way higher amid adverse European weather.

Arlan SudermanWed, 17 Jun 2026, 13:33

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