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By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
We have put together the top five questions that we have been asked over the last six months regarding the copper market:
In the most simplistic terms, the copper market is benefiting from two main drivers.
Firstly, we have a backdrop of supportive structural fundamentals, which are being exaggerated on the back of global policy moves towards strategic stockpiling.
Secondly, we are seeing copper benefit from a wider financial market move, in the form of a debasement trade, in which we can see a growing appetite to hold precious metals, spilling over into copper.
Copper LME 3M Long-Term Chart & Key Drivers
So, if we break down these two main drivers:
Starting with copper’s supportive structural fundamentals
Copper has an attractive long-term outlook. On the supply side, a lack of investment in mining over the last decade, coupled falling ore grades, social and political unrest and the reality that its takes ~17 years to bring on a copper mine from first discovery to first metal production, has left the copper supply outlook highly constrained, with risks to the upside. Meanwhile, copper’s demand outlook continues to grow legs, with copper historically already known for its universal application in the industrial world, it is now a leading metal utilized in the transition to green energy and electrification. As a result of this, copper is set to face a building deficit market in the future.
Market Balance
Consumption Ratio
In addition to this backdrop, the last 14 months have introduced another bullish parameter to the fundamentals, in the form of policy-driven strategic stockpiling. Front and center to this has been the US, which imposed 50% tariffs on semi-finished and finished copper products entering the country from 30th June, while a decision over tariffs on refined copper (to start in 2027) is set to be decided this year. Speculation over the timing and type of tariffs up-ended the copper market in 2025, with more than 1.1Mt of copper entering the US, tightening available above-ground supplies ex-US, with material still being sent into the country at the start of this year.
Looking at the second key bullish driver for copper at present, it is coming from the spill over to hold alterative hard assets like gold.
Now here, the copper market is no stranger to being influenced at times by the speculative market, in which market participants can bet on copper’s price direction across the exchanges. Indeed, we have a perfect example of this type of involvement in the copper market in H1 2024, when investors piled into copper gross long positions on the LME and COMEX, taking COMEX net longs to a record high, and in turn prices (at that time). The reasoning during this period was attached once again to copper’s long-term fundamental outlook but was further encouraged by a series of mine supply disruptions and headlines surrounding copper’s use in AI. However, the speed of price gains and this sudden FOMO in positioning pointed to the reality that copper prices at $11,000/t were unjustifiable simply on a macroeconomic and fundamental basis at that time and it was no surprise that this market move was short-lived with copper prices averaging just $9,390 over H2.
However, this time around, we are in a different situation, in which a building debasement trade is making physical alternative hard assets like gold and silver highly attractive, and we are seeing a spill over into copper, with all three metals posting a nominal high in the same calendar year (2025) for the first time since 1980.
If we just start with the definition of a Supercycle?
A commodity Supercycle, refers to a long-lasting phase (often decades) in which commodity prices, particularly metals and energy, stay significantly above their long-run trend, driven by sustained global demand outpacing supply capacity. These prolonged movements are identified through historical price cycles and reflect deep structural shifts in the global economy rather than short-term market fluctuations.
So given this, in our view the answer here is no, we are more likely in a structural tightening regime, with current metal price peaks being financially driven, with retail investors amplifying the move on the back of uncertain US policy.
In the case of copper, there are arguments to support long term higher prices, given its use in the energy and digital transition, underinvestment in mining and the fact that copper has become a strategic alternative asset, on the back of it being included as a critical mineral in the US. We cannot ignore the reality that global growth projections are mediocre at best, we are facing a structural slowdown in Chinese growth (the world’s largest consumer of copper) in addition to the reality that current global stock levels for copper are at multi-decade highs.
Looking across the year, we see prices for copper above $13,000/t as unsustainable with downwards pressure likely to come from
Overall, while there is no denying copper is facing significant risks to supply, with the market in a building deficit of 333,000t in 2026 from 174,000t in 2025, this is still not enough to justify copper prices at these levels and when prices correct, we expect it to be sharp and significant. Investor positioning will by the key area to watch – and profit taking is already taking place.
So, all in all, copper’s use is deeply embedded in AI demand, and its ecosystem in infrastructure build outs, electrification of transport and modernization of power grids (renewable energy).
However, we the % of copper demand is very small by end-use market.
The most bullish case is for 1-2Mt of copper demand a year from AI by 2030, while lower estimates range from 500-600,000t. As it stands its less than 1.5% of total copper demand in 2026.
Copper Uses in Artificial Intelligence
On a weekly basis, copper remains firmly bullish from a technical perspective. Price continues to trade above all major moving averages, with the broader structural uptrend intact. The first key area of support is located around $12,300/t; a decisive break below this level would likely open the door for a deeper retracement toward $11,500/t.
While the price holds above the $11,000t region, the broader bullish bias remains unchanged. A sustained selloff below $10,100/t would be required to materially challenge the bullish outlook and shift the technical view to bearish.
That said, momentum indicators are currently elevated, and historical studies suggest this increases the probability of a corrective pullback in the near term. As such, while the medium-to-long term trend remains constructive, price action is consistent with a developing corrective phase rather than trend reversal.
Copper LME 3M Price
LME 3M Copper Price Forecasts - Industry Averages
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Governments are increasingly treating copper and other critical minerals as strategic assets rather than ordinary commodities. As geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions and industrial policy converge, competition for secure long-term access to these materials is becoming a defining feature of global markets.
Tomorrow could mark a highly pivotal date in the copper calendar, with 30th June the deadline for US Commerce Secretary Howard Lunitck to provide the US President with an update on the refined copper market and domestic refining capacity.
Base Metal Quarterly Outlook: Q3 2026
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