Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 10
September 10 – Headline PPI rebounded to a 5.4% year-on-year gain in August, up sharply from the upwardly revised 4.8% seen in July but only slightly above analysts' expectations of a more moderate rise to 5.3%, still bringing inflation back to center stage. In month-on-month terms, this was a 0.4% increase, up sharply from the 0.1% seen in July and the sharpest rate of gain since May. Stripping this down to core PPI, this was a 4.6% year-on-year increase, matching analyst estimates but still representing a notable uptick from the upwardly revised 4.3% seen in July. In my opinion, this is where the bigger concern lies. Obviously, much of the fears of resurgent inflation in 2026 has centered around the ongoing energy shock, which proved true in this morning’s data, but the pervasiveness of inflationary pressures at the core level, stripping out the more volatile energy sector, paints a picture of sticky inflation that does not appear ready to go away on its own. For context, this is the third highest core PPI print of 2026, only 0.3% off the three-plus year high seen back in April. We’ll get another update tomorrow with August CPI set to be released, with the average analyst estimate calling for a 3.4% headline and 2.4% core increase. The longer-term thing to keep in mind here is how much the current inflationary pressures have been concentrated at the producer level—if realized, that CPI print would be 2.0% below headline PPI. That means producers are effectively eating these costs up front, translating to near-term margin pressure, with producers historically tending to pass these costs along down the road for margin recovery which can lead to longer tails of inflation at the consumer level.
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products