USDA Attache: Honduras 2025-2026 Coffee Crop Pegged at 5.8 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The latest USDA attache report has pegged the 2025-2026 coffee crop from Honduras at 5.8 million bags.
Honduras’s coffee production for MY 2024/25 is forecast at 5.52 million 60-kg bags, increasing 9.3 percent from 5.05 million bags in MY 2023/24, matching levels last seen in MY 2021/22. This increase is largely due to reduced coffee leaf rust, the harvest of rust-resistant Parainema varieties, better flowering conditions, fewer labor shortages, and an 81 percent rise in international coffee prices, partly driven by weather-related impacts in Brazil. Climatic disruptions in Brazil, such as droughts, fires, and extreme heat, have pushed up reference prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), boosting demand for Honduran Arabica coffee.
Looking ahead, coffee production in Honduras is expected to grow modestly to 5.8 million bags in MY 2025/26, based on the continuation of positive trends observed in MY 2024/25, including a reduction in labor shortages, lower coffee rust incidence, and stable weather conditions. As of April 2025, around 3 percent of the current crop remains unharvested, while 40 percent is still awaiting export, roasting, or processing.
Weather conditions are expected to impact coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) beginning in July 2024, with national incidence levels forecast to remain low through August 2025, averaging 2.9 percent. Higher localized incidence is projected in the departments of Intibucá (5.9 percent), Santa Bárbara (4.2 percent), Comayagua (4.0 percent), Yoro (3.6 percent), Cortés (3.18 percent), Colón (2.9 percent), Francisco Morazán (2.7 percent), and Lempira (2.2 percent). According to IHCAFE, rust incidence between 0 and 5 percent is considered low, while 5 to 20 percent represents a medium-level threshold. In April 2024, IHCAFE surveys showed that 76 percent of sampled farms exhibited low levels of rust, 19 percent showed medium incidence, and 5 percent had high incidence. The overall low presence of rust is attributed to continued dry season conditions across much of Honduras’s coffee-producing regions.
Honduras’s planted coffee area is projected to grow by approximately 3.3 percent, or 10,000 hectares, in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, driven by the introduction of the Parainema variety, a rust-resistant coffee cultivar.
Coffee consumption in Honduras for MY 2025/26 is projected to remain stable, supported by modest economic growth estimated at 2.8 to 3.4 percent. However, this growth may be tempered by reduced purchasing power amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the potential impact of tariffs, which could affect both local consumption and broader economic activity. In MY 2024/25, domestic coffee consumption declined by 13 percent, falling from 385,000 bags in MY 2023/24 to 335,000 bags. This drop is largely attributed to consumers shifting away from higher-priced roasted coffee in favor of more affordable soluble coffee options.
Honduran coffee exports are projected to reach approximately 5.50 million 60-kilogram bags by MY 2025/26. This sustained growth is expected to be supported by improved yields, favorable and stable climate conditions, and expanded access to international markets. Additionally, Honduras stands to benefit from global supply shifts, particularly the ongoing production challenges faced by Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter.
For MY 2024/25, Honduras' coffee exports are forecast at 5.36 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 14.7 percent compared to the revised estimate of 4.67 million bags in the previous year. This sharp growth reflects not only better agricultural performance and favorable weather but also Honduras’ strengthened position in global coffee markets amid disruptions to Brazil’s output.
As of April 2025, Honduras has exported 2.25 million 60-kg bags, reflecting an 11 percent increase from the same period in MY 2023/24, which saw 2.03 million bags exported. This increase is driven by both higher volumes and a significant rise in coffee prices. The average price of Honduran coffee exports has surged to $345.82 per 60-kg bag, marking an 81 percent increase compared to the $191.34 per bag recorded in MY 2023/24. The total value of coffee exports by April 2025 reached $1.02 billion, a 100 percent increase from the previous year’s $507.05 million.
Honduras’ coffee imports are projected to reach 43,000 60-kilogram bags in MY 2025/26, marking a 4.9 percent increase from the estimated 41,000 bags in MY 2024/25. This rise in imports is primarily driven by lower ending stocks carried over from previous years and an increased domestic preference for more affordable imported coffee, particularly as the cost of locally produced coffee remains high. Of the total imports, approximately 40 percent consist of green coffee beans, while the remaining 60 percent are soluble coffee products.
In MY 2024/25, green coffee bean imports into Honduras through February 2025 totaled 15,871, 60-kilogram sacks, primarily sourced from Nicaragua 11,408 60-kilogram sacks, followed by Vietnam with 4,452 sacks. Minimal volumes were imported from the United States and Costa Rica, each contributing 10 sacks, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.
Imports of roasted coffee also saw significant growth. Through February 2025, roasted coffee imports reached 2,004 sacks (GBE), representing a 101 percent increase compared to 997 sacks during the same period in MY 2023/24. The main suppliers were Canada, the United States, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
Soluble coffee imports also rose during this period. From October 2024 through February 2025, Honduras imported 26,601 sacks, up from 23,849 sacks during the same timeframe the previous year. As of April 2025, total soluble coffee imports remained at 26,601 sacks. Key sources included Mexico, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, and Costa Rica.
Ending stocks of coffee in Honduras for MY 2025/26 are projected to recover modestly to 11,000 60-kilogram bags, driven by a slight 2.6 percent increase in exports and stable domestic consumption.
In contrast, MY 2024/25 ending stocks are expected to decline sharply to 6,000 bags, a 96 percent drop compared to the previous year. This steep reduction follows a significant drawdown from the revised estimate for MY 2023/24, which has been updated to 143,000 bags (up from an initial forecast of 52,000 bags). The revision reflects lower-than-expected exports, totaling 4.6 million bags for that year.
Coffee stocks in Honduras are managed by approximately 70 private sector exporters and roasters. Coffee beans held by exporters serve as inventory to fulfill future contracts and are not used to influence market prices. Domestic roasters maintain stocks to ensure year-round supply for local consumption. Some of these stocks may be sold to other Central American markets depending on price trends and commercial opportunities. Key regional destinations for Honduran roasted coffee include El Salvador, Guatemala, and Belize, while soluble coffee is primarily exported to Guatemala and Panama.
Alexis Rubinstein
