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USDA Attache: Kenya’s 2020-2021 Coffee Crop Pegged at 650,000 Bags

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

CoffeeNetwork

USDA Attache: Kenya’s 2020-2021 Coffee Crop Pegged at 650,000 Bags

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – According to the latest USDA attache report, Kenya’s coffee production will stagnate at about 650 thousand bags, in MY 2020/2021 due sub-optimal flowering of coffee trees in key coffee growing regions, due to intermittent rains, during the just-ended January – April period. The weather setback happened in the backdrop of a significant scale-down of crop husbandry by coffee farmers due to low returns. In the meantime, GOK, supported by the World Bank, has initiated a new program, “the Coffee Revitalization Program” to rejuvenate Kenya’s coffee sector in eight counties. Some of the proposed interventions under the program include: production intensification in existing plantations, modernizing of processing facilities, and strengthening of producer organizations. The total coffee area has largely stagnated, as efforts to promote new plantings, in non-traditional coffee growing areas are countered by replacement with other enterprises, especially real estate development in the peri-urban areas.

Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority to regulate the Nairobi Coffee Exchange

Under regulations that were published in February 2020, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) - Kenya’s 86 years-old coffee spot market, will come under the supervision of the Capital Markets Authority (CMA), at the start of new coffee marketing year (MY 2020/2021). The move will effectively remove the weekly coffee auctions from the purview of the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA). How this pans out is currently unclear, although some sections of the coffee industry have expressed reservations about this new role for CMA, given that NCE does not trade in commodity futures or in commoditylinked financial derivatives. The low volumes of coffee traded at NCE, could also become a deterrent towards the development of an exchange in the sense that would be useful for the engagement of CMA.

Covid-19 to setback coffee consumption growth

Over the last decade, coffee drinking culture has been taking root in Kenya – especially in urban areas. This is evidenced by the numerous, well-patronized coffee houses that have sprang-up across the country, in malls and other shopping areas. The Kenyan youth are particularly keen on coffee preparation skills, and several coffee trading firms have set up training facilities to respond to this need. The onset of Covid-19 pandemic, and the follow-on containment measures, by the government has disrupted the coffee consumption growth trajectory. The closure of hotels, restaurants, coffee houses, and other eateries has hit hard the nascent coffee drinking culture. While the post-Covid-19 environment is difficult to completely determine, FAS/Nairobi forecast a quick recovery of coffee consumption in MY 2020/2021, to reach sixty thousand bags- about ninety percent of pre-Covid-19 levels.

Exports for 2020/2021 are forecast at 620,000 bags, down from the 650,000 bags exported in the previous coffee year.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts a modest increase in ending stocks, estimated at thirty-five thousand bags, due to lower exports in MY 2020/2021, and depressed domestic consumption. In Kenya, coffee stocks are held by the millers, marketing agents, and exporters. Individual large-scale farmers and co-operatives also hold stocks in the form of parchment coffee.

Alexis Rubinstein

 

© 2020 INTL FCStone Inc. All Rights Reserved.

 

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