StoneX: USDA Reduces Brazilian Coffee Production Estimate for 2024/25
With a reduction of 3.5 million bags, USDA's estimate aligns closely with StoneX's projection
In its latest report, the USDA reduced its estimate for the Brazilian coffee crop by 3.5 million bags (-5.0%) for the 2024/25 season, decreasing from 69.9 to 66.4 million bags. For robusta coffee, the reduction was 700,000 bags (-3.2%), totaling 21 million bags. Meanwhile, for arabica coffee, the department lowered its estimate by 2.8 million bags (-5.8%). According to the report, this production decline was caused by adverse weather impacts. As a result, with the new estimate, Brazilian coffee production is expected to show a 0.15% annual increase, with a 1.9% drop in robusta production and a 1.1% increase in arabica production.
The USDA’s update places its projection close to StoneX’s estimate for 2024/25 production, which was revised on August 1st this year. Following a crop survey published in February, StoneX initially estimated production at 67 million bags, consisting of 44.3 million arabica bags and 22.7 million robusta bags. During the coffee harvest, StoneX conducted a new survey and revised its production estimate for the season in early August, lowering it from 67 to 65.9 million bags (-1.7%). In the updated projection, robusta production was reduced by 6.8%, totaling 21.2 million bags, while arabica production saw a 1% adjustment, reaching 44.7 million bags. The difference between the USDA’s new estimate and StoneX’s is only 500,000 bags (0.7%).
Brazilian coffee production (millions of bags)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.
According to the USDA, Brazilian green coffee exports for the season are expected to total 40.5 million bags, representing a 4.7% decline compared to the previous estimate and a 6% drop compared to the previous season. Soluble coffee exports are projected to total 3.7 million bags, 9.8% lower than the previous estimate but 2.8% higher than the last season. The report also highlights that stocks are 65% lower compared to the previous estimate and 26.4% below last season. The department maintained its estimates for coffee consumption in Brazil unchanged, both for soluble coffee and roasted and ground coffee.






