USDA Sees Global Supply Surplus of 4.9 Million Bags in 2025-2026 Coffee Year

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Fri, 19 Dec 2025, 14:17

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The USDA has published their biannual world coffee report, where they pegged global coffee production for the 2025-2026 coffee crop at 178.8 million bags, up 3.5 million bags higher than the previous year. Consumption is expected 173.9 million bags, leaving a supply surplus of the coffee year to 4.9 million bags.

World coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.5 million bags higher than the previous year to a record 178.8 million due to continued recovery in Vietnam and record output in Indonesia and Ethiopia, more than compensating for losses in Brazil and Colombia. World coffee bean exports are forecast 2.3 million bags higher to 123.8 million as gains from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Honduras more than offset losses from Brazil and Colombia. With global consumption continuing to rise to a record 173.9 million bags, ending stocks are expected to drop for a fifth-consecutive year to just 20.1 million bags. In response, coffee prices as measured by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite price index have nearly tripled during this period.

Brazil combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast to decline 2.0 million bags to 63.0 million. Arabica output is expected to drop 6.0 million bags to 38.0 million as drought and high temperatures in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo adversely affected blossoming as well as fruit setting and development. The Robusta harvest is expected to be 4.0 million bags higher to a record 25.0 million as good rainfall volumes aided fruit development in the major producing states of Espirito Santo and Bahia. Lower available supplies are expected to reduce coffee bean exports by 4.0 million bags to 37.0 million.

Vietnam production is forecast to continue recovering to reach 30.8 million bags due to higher yields attributed to favorable weather. High prices allowed coffee growers to increase expenditures on fertilizers and other inputs to further raise yields. Area harvested is forecast to be nearly unchanged, with nearly 95 percent of total output remaining as Robusta. Bean exports are forecast up 2.3 million bags to 24.6 million on higher supplies.

Colombia output is expected to fall by 1.0 million bags to 13.8 million as excessive rains and cloud cover disrupted the flowering period to lower yields. While these conditions were favorable for coffee leaf rust to proliferate, overall detection rates have been relatively low due to the high presence of disease-resistant varieties. Coffee bean exports mostly to the United States and European Union are forecast down 700,000 bags to 11.5 million on reduced output.

Ethiopia is forecast to increase output by 500,000 bags to a record 11.6 million bags. Over the last 3 years, growth has been driven by replacement of over half of the cultivated area with higher[1]yielding coffee varieties. Growers were also encouraged to improve yields by pruning after the harvest. Bean exports are forecast up 400,000 bags to 7.8 million on higher supplies.

Central America and Mexico production is expected to rise 1.1 million bags to 17.6 million primarily on rebounding output in Honduras, and to a lesser extent, Guatemala. Honduras accounts for one-third of the region’s output. Higher coffee bean exports from these countries are expected to boost exports for the region by 1.0 million bags to 14.4 million.

Revisions to 2024/25 Estimates

World production is lowered 900,000 bags from the June 2025 estimate to 175.3 million.

Colombia is raised 1.6 million bags to 14.8 million on higher yields due to additional precipitation that resulted in heavier coffee beans.
Cote d’Ivoire is reduced 600,000 bags to 650,000 on lower yields.

World bean imports are revised up 3.0 million bags to 118.3 million.

The European Union is raised 800,000 bags to 46.2 million on higher consumption.
The United States is up 600,000 bags to 23.4 million on higher consumption.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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