Daily Coffee Report 6/5/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
War Continues to Impact Global Coffee Trade
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
War Continues to Impact Global Coffee TradeCoffeeNetwork (New York) – The coffee sector has been facing ongoing challenges with logistics, remains vulnerable to climate change all while simultaneously trying to tackle challenges with labor shortages, deforestation regulations and outbreaks of pests and diseases. But one of the less talked about factors that impact coffee flow is war; both in exports from producing countries and imports from consuming countries.
The Israel-Hamas conflict began on October 7, 2023. Israel’s coffee market has been steadily growing, with domestic consumption jumping 62% to per capita consumption of 6.57 kg. Israel has been ranked 43rd within the group of 161 countries we follow in terms of coffee consumption per capita. Comtrade data showed that Israel imported 13,548,800 kilograms of green coffee in 2023. Israel also exports roasted coffee, with major coffee companies like Strauss Coffee having roasting facilities within the country. Prior to the conflict, the main importer of roasted coffee from Israel was Palestine. Data since the conflict began has not been released.
The Ukraine-Russia war has been raging on since 2022 and its influence on coffee is still being felt. A report from Brazil’s soluble coffee association, ABIC, showed that Russia fell from a top importer to 19th in 2023. Soluble coffee imports fell 58% year on year.
As previously reported by CoffeeNetwork, the Ukraine was also one of the fastest growing coffee markets in Europe. The coffee retail market has both domestic chains and international brands such as McCafé, Russia’s Shokoladnitsa, Italy’s illy Caffè and Turkey’s Simit Sarayi. Prior to the war, Ukraine’s coffee culture was said to be “booming.” The latest data showed that the annual coffee consumption is about 3 kg of ground coffee per average Ukrainian.
Green coffee imported into Ukraine is classified as fruit and, as such, has zero duty. Roasted coffee gets under the control of food products and is subject to a 5% duty. A certificate of origin is required for any coffee, while indicative prices are guided by the coffee exchange.
Revenue in the Coffee segment was expected to amount to US$1,549m in 2022. The market was previously expected to grow annually by 6.79% (CAGR 2022-2025).
In 2019, World Coffee Portal conducted a survey on Europe’s retail coffee shop markets and their growth. The survey results showed that the fastest-growing European coffee shop markets tended to be concentrated in Eastern Europe, with Romania leading the way at 28.3% outlet growth, followed by Kazakhstan (26.5%) and Ukraine (16%).
According to a 2020 International Coffee Organization study, Ukraine is currently the eleventh largest importing country in the world in terms of volume. The data showed that consumption in 2020-2021 totaled 1.38 million bags, an increase of 3.3% over a five-year period. Coffee imports to the country surged 63% in the same period.
Comtrade data shows that green coffee imports to Ukraine fell more than 10% from 27,192,226 kilograms in 2021 to 24,377,660 kilograms in 2023.
Ethiopia, the reported “birthplace of coffee,” has been fighting a civil war with militant groups. Despite a 2022 peace agreement, violence continues, presenting challenges for all links in the domestic coffee chain. Coffee generates 30 to 35% of Ethiopia’s export earnings and is the primary traded commodity. And with coffee so closely tied to the controversial war-torn country, some coffee companies decided to take a stand. Last year, Pact Coffee issued a statement explaining to their customers that they are not currently sourcing coffee from Ethiopia.
“At Pact Coffee, we believe in not just offering great coffee but also in making ethical choices that have a positive impact. We understand the significance of Ethiopian coffee, which serves as the backbone of the country’s economy. But it’s crucial to acknowledge the challenges in the Tigray war, where a brutal civil war has caused immense suffering,” the company said. They went on to explain that the earnings from their coffee purchases are given to the Central Bank, leaving the allocation of that money up to the government, which could be used for “foreign arms purchases.”
Comtrade data shows that Ethiopian coffee exports fell more than 10% from 2022 to 2023.
Sudan, both a producer and importer of coffee, has seen extreme conflict since 2003. However, the situation re-escalated last year when an outbreak of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began.
Sudan was one of the main importers of Ugandan coffee on the African continent and for the last 12 months, Uganda has felt the impact of lower demand from that region.
At the start of the conflict, coffee exports to Sudan comprised around 11% of the total exports in April 2023, falling to 7% in May 2023 as conflict worsened. As of April 2024, Sudan is the number 11 importer of Ugandan coffee, importing 7,700 60-kg bags, down 53% month on month and 80.5% year on year.
Historically, Uganda exported almost 1 million bags of coffee to Sudan annually, comprising almost 20% of total exports.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
CFTC Softs & Metals 6-5
Weekly CFTC Report on the Softs and Metals Sectors
Matt Zeller
- Sugar
- Cocoa
- Coffee
The MarketWatch Update
Today's commodity market news and analysis/advisory guidance.
US RJO - Scott Magnuson, CTA
- Precious Metals
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Currencies
- Interest Rates
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.