Copper Price Holds Steady as Traders Await News
Key takeaways
- StoneX’s Natalie Scott-Gray says U.S. dollar is likely “key price driver” near-term for the base metals
- Traders cautious stimulus news from China and tariff news from U.S.
- Copper remains steady on LME, down on SHFE
Reuter’s recently asked StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray for her insight into LME metal prices as traders awaited news of a potential financial boost from the Central Economic Work Conference being held in China. Also hanging over the market’s head is the possibility of trade tariffs being implemented by the incoming Trump administration - and presumed retaliation by Chinese trade partners.
Prices for three-month copper remained steady at $9,079.5 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) at the time of the quote. The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was down 3% from January’s high of $10,248.76 per metric ton.
"With the rising uncertainty over the macro-outlook, the U.S. dollar is likely to take center stage as a key price driver for the base metals in the near-term,” Scott-Gray said, “with whipsaw movements a direct a result of Trump announcements.” A strong U.S. dollar increase metal costs for buyers holding other currencies.
Given the previous Trump administration applied significant tariffs on multiple imports from China and others, expectations have been high that a similar future is ahead. In 2018 in particular, the two largest economies traded significant tariffs in a retaliatory fashion that ultimately carried significant impact on the respective countries and commodity prices. Across the board, LME products slipped at the time of the interview including aluminium (-0.4% to $2,636 a ton), nickel (-0.5% to $3,084.5), and zinc (-0.5% to $16,035). Lead held steady at $2,086.5, and tin was unchanged at $29,035.
On the SHFE, the gains were in aluminium (+0.9 to 20,630 yuan a ton), tin (+0.6% to 244,570 yuan), zinc (+0.3% to 25,395 yuan) and lead (+0.7% to 17,665 yuan). Nickel was down (-0.4% to 126,940 yuan).
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