Brazil's Soybean Outlook Brightens as StoneX Lifts Production Target
Key Insights
- StoneX’s team raised its soybean production forecast to 171.4 million metric tons from December's 166.2 estimate
- Export projections were also revised upward to 107 million tons
- Weather conditions remain a critical factor for final yields
StoneX’s Brazil Market Intelligence team bumped up its forecast for Brazil's 2024-2025 soybean crop to 171.4 million metric tons on Thursday. The new estimate sits well above December's projection of 166.2 million tons.
Ana Luiza Lodi, a StoneX analyst, points to better yields and more planted area driving the increase. The forecast puts expected production 14.4% higher than last season, when weather problems hit Brazil's soybean farmers hard.
"Everything points to soybean production exceeding 170 million tons," Lodi said. But she added that weather risks haven't disappeared, warning for example that too much rain at harvest could still cause headaches.
The group now also expects Brazil to export 107 million tons of soybeans for the season, up from its earlier estimate of 103 million. In a separate forecast, the team also tweaked its outlook for Brazil's total corn production, seeing it at 128.6 million tons.
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Read the coverage of the forecast in the Canadian Cattlemen here.
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