Grain markets are drawing fresh attention as the U.S. Department of Agriculture opens enrollment for the 2026 Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs. The timing is notable, as farmers are harvesting the current crop while weighing which program offers better downside support amid a modest market rally and a stronger price forecast for the 2026 marketing year. Consequently, Farm Journal's College Roadshow on AgWeb convened a University of Nebraska roundtable in Lincoln, Nebraska, to examine the decision and the demand backdrop behind grain prices. The discussion also turned to the corn versus soybean outlook and how competing crops could shape acreage for 2027. Mike Castle, StoneX Senior Commodities Economist, explained why he now leans toward corn and how an energy shock is supporting demand across grain markets.

Key Takeaways:

• Mike Castle, StoneX Senior Commodities Economist, now leans more toward corn than soybeans in his grain market outlook.
• An energy shock is supporting grain and oilseed markets by incentivizing biofuel demand in the U.S. and globally while preventing additional supply from leaving Brazil.
• Winter wheat prices reached their highest level for the fall price discovery period in four years, which Castle expects to buy wheat acres as corn and soybeans also compete for acreage.

Energy Shock Drives Grain Markets Into Competition for Acres

Corn has moved ahead of soybeans in Castle's grain market outlook, as he told the roundtable "I would lean more on the corn side today." This shift stems from an energy shock that he described as broadly supportive for grain and oilseed markets, specifically by incentivizing biofuel demand not just in the U.S. but globally. Notably, the same dynamic is preventing additional supply from leaving Brazil, resulting in more competitive U.S. grain exports. Consequently, Castle argued that "These markets have to buy acres," evidenced by winter wheat recording its highest prices for the fall price discovery period in four years. Likewise, corn and soybeans retain a strong demand base supporting overall grain market fundamentals, meaning both crops must also compete for acres as the 2027 acreage discussion takes shape.

Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV

Expert: Mike Castle, Senior Commodities Economist, StoneX