Tomas Pernias, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, unpacks why Brazil’s fertilizer imports hit a July record and what shifting product choices and policy risks could mean for producers.
Pernias explains that demand typically rises in the second half and stays resilient into October, with phosphate and potash peaking between June and September. In 2025 that seasonal upswing collided with tougher economics for producers. “Fertilizer prices are high, grain prices are weak”, and higher interest rates add to the strain.
The combination encouraged buyers to move early and in size, resulting in a July record of 4.8 million tons as they aimed to secure supply and manage cost risk ahead of the next season.
Scarce MAP supply and discouraging prices led importers to prefer SSP and TSP on the phosphate side. In nitrogen, a tight urea market, reduced Chinese exports, and Indian demand pushed prices higher, prompting increased imports of ammonia and ammonium sulfate.
The trade-off is volume. As Pernias notes, “Brazilian market literally needs more tons” when using less concentrated fertilizers to deliver the same nutrient load as urea, MAP, or DAP.
Russia remains the dominant external supplier, accounting for a large share of Brazil’s fertilizer imports and the majority of MOP and a significant portion of MAP. That concentration makes rapid diversification difficult if policies shift.
Pernias highlights the risk that any new tariffs or sanctions could disrupt trade flows and send prices sharply higher, posing a serious threat to producer margins.
In a worst case where Russian product becomes inaccessible, replacing more than 10 million tons annually would be challenging in the near term. “Brazil imports nearly 85% of the fertilizer used in the domestic market”, underscoring the scale of the task.
Longer-term options include gradual diversification toward suppliers such as Egypt or parts of the Middle East and advancing Brazil’s National Fertilizer Plan. However, Pernias stresses that these measures will take years to materially change import dependence.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Tomas Pernias, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
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