Whey Prices Reach New Highs as Demand Outruns Supply Gains

Key Takeaways:

• Global Demand and Low Inventories – Dry whey and WPI have reached record prices as tight supplies collide with rising global demand
• WPI’s Strength Driven by Innovation and GLP-1 Meds – New clear, fruit-flavored protein drinks and the need for muscle-preserving diets have pushed WPI higher
• More Supply on the Horizon—But Not Right Away – Upcoming cheese processing plants may relieve pressure by mid-2025, though WPI prices could remain strong for some time

Dry whey and whey protein isolate (WPI) prices in the U.S. have moved sharply higher, breaking records in recent weeks. Nate Donnay, Director of Dairy Market Insights at StoneX, notes that global fundamentals are driving much of this surge, saying that since anywhere from 25% to 85% of U.S. whey is exported, shifts in international supply and demand can quickly influence domestic prices.

Donnay points to WPI’s especially strong performance, fueled by new applications in clear, fruit-flavored protein drinks and by the growing use of GLP-1 medications. People on these medications often aim to preserve muscle mass, which translates into higher protein intake—and that spills over into the whey market. “We don’t know how much product end users and traders are holding,” Donnay says. “My guess is end-users and traders stocked up on product in the second half of 2023, which means domestic consumption didn’t surge quite as much as it seems—but they have been working through that inventory during 2024, so domestic consumption has grown more than the hard data from the USDA would suggest.”

On the production side, Donnay highlights a wave of new cheese processing plants slated to come online between late 2024 and mid-2025. Those facilities should lead to more whey streams, but it takes time to reach full capacity and pass strict quality checks—especially for specialized products like WPI. Until then, supply remains tight, and any new output might only stabilize prices rather than send them crashing. “Driven by the good demand, WPI prices probably stay high for a while, maybe coming off a bit in Q2/Q3 on new processing capacity,” he adds.

Still, Donnay expects that demand will eventually soften if prices climb too high for too long. High protein costs can curb usage, both domestically and in export markets. Dry whey, for instance, might ease first if margins become more attractive for lower-protein products or if end users switch to alternatives. But WPI, he says, may stay elevated. With a structural shift in consumer habits and the rise of protein-forward diets, WPI appears more insulated from big price drops—even if other whey products pull back a bit.

In Donnay’s view, that means the market could remain on edge for the next several months. He advises anyone buying or selling whey products to stay alert for swings tied to changes in demand, evolving consumer trends, and the gradual arrival of new supply. Until conditions settle, high prices look likely to persist—especially for premium products like WPI.

Read more dairy analysis like this in StoneX Plus.

Make Actionable Dairy Insight Your Edge

Navigate volatile dairy markets with confidence. Try StoneX Plus free for 14 days. Access expert analysis, forecasts, and customizable data tools to drive smarter decisions. From live prices to interactive charts, get the intelligence you need to thrive in today's volatile dairy markets.

---Written by: Andrew Catsimanes, Copywriter

---Expert: Nate Donnay, Director of Dairy Market Insights

The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.