Daily Coffee Report 6/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Coffee Market Holds Firm as Arabica Prices Stabilize Near 300¢ Amid Tight Washed Supply
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Global coffee markets remain volatile today, with Arabica futures holding near key technical levels as traders balance improving forward crop expectations against persistent near‑term supply constraints — particularly in the washed arabica segment.
On ICE New York, the benchmark July 2026 Arabica contract settled around 300.35 US cents per pound, up nearly 4% on the session, marking a rebound from recent multi‑week lows and signaling continued tension around nearby availability. The nearby May contract finished even higher, near 316 cents per pound, reflecting tightness at the front of the curve as physical supply remains constrained in key origins. Cash Arabica values are trading near 335 cents per pound, underscoring strong nearby demand relative to deliverable supply.
The price action highlights an increasingly uneven market. While global production forecasts point to improvement later in the cycle — particularly in Brazil — the physical flow of high‑quality washed arabica remains limited today. This dynamic continues to support New York futures, even as macro factors and broader commodity volatility weigh on sentiment.
Colombia’s latest data have sharpened this focus. The National Coffee Growers Federation reported a sharp year‑on‑year contraction in both production and exports during March, reflecting weather disruptions tied to excessive rainfall earlier in 2025. Colombia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of washed arabica, reported March production of 754,000 bags, down nearly 29% from last year, while exports fell close to 37% year on year. On a cumulative basis, both production and exports for the first half of the October 2025–September 2026 coffee year are running well behind last season.
These figures are particularly significant for Arabica pricing. Colombia supplies a critical share of exchange‑deliverable washed coffee, and reductions in availability tend to amplify price sensitivity in futures during periods of low certified stocks. ICE‑monitored Arabica inventories remain historically low by recent standards, leaving the market especially vulnerable to supply‑side surprises.
Brazil remains the key counterweight, yet near‑term flow from the world’s largest producer continues to lag. Although expectations for the upcoming Brazilian harvest are broadly positive, exports so far this year remain well below last season’s pace, reflecting the inter‑harvest gap and producer selling restraint. The Brazilian real has also traded firmer against the US dollar, discouraging aggressive export sales and lending additional support to futures prices. Traders report that physical differentials remain firm, reinforcing the idea that supply remains tight where it matters most.
Elsewhere, Central American origins are shipping steadily but insufficiently to offset Colombia’s shortfall in premium washed arabica. Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua continue to supply specialty and mainstream markets, yet volumes remain constrained by earlier weather challenges and structural production limits. For roasters with strict quality specifications, spot coverage remains tight and procurement costs elevated.
Robusta markets present a contrasting picture. London futures have been more range‑bound, pressured by rising export volumes from Vietnam and improved global robusta availability. However, even here, nearby physical tightness persists. ICE‑certified Robusta stocks remain near multi‑month lows, creating a disconnect between paper balances and spot market conditions. This has limited downside momentum in London, despite more comfortable forward supply projections.
On the demand side, consumption appears resilient. Major roasters continue to report stable volumes, supported by strong at‑home consumption and ongoing premiumization in key markets. In Europe, particularly Germany, household coffee consumption remains robust, with rising ownership of fully automatic machines supporting continued demand for quality beans despite elevated prices. This demand resilience helps explain why Arabica prices have struggled to break decisively lower even as macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.
Regulatory considerations also remain part of the longer‑term conversation. While not driving today’s price action directly, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) continues to influence forward contracting strategies, especially for washed arabica origins with fragmented smallholder supply chains. Buyers are increasingly focused on traceability assurances, raising the risk of a two‑tier market where compliant coffee commands a premium into Europe.
Taken together, today’s coffee market reflects a familiar but unresolved tension. Arabica futures near 300 cents per pound are being pulled in opposite directions: forward‑looking supply optimism on one side, and immediate physical tightness on the other. Until flow from Brazil materially improves and Colombia shows clearer signs of recovery, washed arabica availability is likely to remain constrained — keeping New York prices sensitive to any additional weather, logistics or currency developments in the weeks ahead.
Alexis Rubinstein s
- Coffee
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