Robusta Slump Deepens as Brazil Harvest Floods Market
With Brazil’s harvest in full swing, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager Fernando Maximiliano joined Johanna Botta to break down what’s behind the recent drop in global coffee prices.
Key Takeaways
Brazil’s early harvest and low starting stocks triggered recent price volatility
Global production recovery in Vietnam and Indonesia eases future supply concerns
Weather remains the biggest wildcard for the upcoming 2026/27 crop
Brazil’s Role in Coffee Market Volatility
Coffee prices surged earlier this year due to critically low domestic stocks in Brazil and tight global supplies. As Maximiliano noted, Brazil entered 2024 with limited carryover stock and an industry relying on just-in-time inventory. “This combination of low supply and demand from the industry was explosive for prices”. Now, the shift is in motion. With harvesting well underway and availability increasing, pressure on prices has intensified.
Supply Dynamics Beyond Brazil
While Brazil remains the world’s largest producer and second-largest consumer, other countries are influencing the 2025/26 outlook. “The supply and demand balance for 2025/26 is not comfortable, but it is expected to be a little better than it was in 2024/25” said Maximiliano. Production rebounds in Vietnam and Indonesia are key contributors, helping ease the tight supply environment that defined the previous season.
Weather Risks Still Loom
The one factor that could alter this trend quickly is weather. A sharp drop in Brazilian temperatures forecast for June 25 has raised frost concerns, though uncertainty remains across regional models. “There is a certain level of uncertainty, but we have to watch these dropping temperatures”. Winter is just beginning in Brazil, and the threat of cold spells persists.
Looking Ahead to the 2026/27 Crop
Maximiliano emphasized the critical nature of the upcoming flowering season, starting in August. With five consecutive years of flowering disruptions, market sentiment hinges on weather cooperation. “If we see a delay in the rainfall... we could see a lower output in 2026, and then that would be bullish for the market”. As fundamentals shift, weather remains central to forecasting both near-term and long-term coffee price movements.
Make Market Insights Your Competitive Advantage
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager
Coffee
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
