The cocoa market is caught in an unusual split. Even though the current harvest looks well supplied, the cocoa supply outlook now turns on the next two crops, both of which face real doubts from weather and El Nino. Prices have pushed higher not because beans are scarce today, but because the market is bracing for what the 2026/27 and 2027/28 seasons might bring. For anyone buying or hedging cocoa, the story that matters most is no longer this season, it is the two that follow.
Lucca Bezzon is a Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX in Brazil, where he covers global soft commodity markets and tracks supply and demand balances in cocoa and coffee. He follows production flows and processing trends across West Africa, emerging producers and Brazilian harvests.
Key Themes
New York cocoa futures have risen more than 40% since early February despite a comfortably supplied current harvest.
StoneX cut its 2026/27 cocoa surplus estimate to around 25,000 tonnes as West Africa's next crop weakens.
El Nino risk into 2027 raises the chance of two short cocoa crops and a tighter global balance.
The cocoa supply outlook for 2026/27 has weakened as poor weather and softer pod counts cut into West Africa's next crop. "Weather has not been very good in West Africa, especially during the month of June, which is a very important month for the development of the beans that are going to be harvested on the next harvest,", Bezzon says. Consequently, StoneX cut its projected 2026/27 cocoa surplus from around 149,000 tonnes to about 25,000 tonnes, leaving almost no cushion. Official signals reinforce the caution, with Ghana COCOBOD already anticipating a supply decline of around 16% and Ivory Coast halting forward sales for the next harvest. For commercial cocoa buyers, that thinner next crop means the comfortable coverage of this season may not carry into the one that follows.
El Nino Puts a Second Cocoa Crop at Risk
The bigger risk for cocoa is that two weak crops arrive back to back, which would test the market far more than a single short season. With El Nino conditions expected to linger, the 2027/28 crop that follows 2026/27 could also come in light. According to Bezzon, "the surplus that we saw being constructed during the current harvest may not be enough to offset the risks" if both seasons disappoint. That combination raises the prospect of the cocoa market shifting from surplus back toward balance or even deficit, echoing the tight conditions of 2023 and 2024 when supply ran thin. For processors and hedgers, it explains why cocoa prices can keep climbing even while today's warehouses look full.
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