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Daily Coffee Report 7/20/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee opened the week under very light volume and volatile price action, once again trading both sides of unchanged before closing higher. Meaningful commercial activity remains scarce, a trend now in its second week. The July 2026 arabica contract expires tomorrow, after which September 2026 becomes the spot month; as of Friday's close, the September contract carried 64,687 contracts of open interest. The Arabica UZ spread eased, closing at a 15.50 premium — the lowest close since July 8th. Robusta prices finished the day little changed, continuing to hold 3800 basis September as support. The Sep/Nov spread fell $15 today to a 30 premium. As both terminal markets advance toward their respective delivery periods, positioning will become an increasingly important driver of price action. Friday's COT report shows both markets still carry considerable managed money length that will need to be rolled or unwound over the next 3-4 weeks. Of particular note is the managed money long in London Robusta, which accounts for more than 42% of total market open interest.

Some additional notes from StoneX's weekly coffee report: per the latest FNC (Federación Nacional de Cafeteros) bulletin, the average differential for Colombian coffee in May reached US¢48.10/lb — a 38% monthly increase and roughly five times the level from May 2025 (+454% y/y), the highest level since February 2023. StoneX's own differential tracking points to even wider differentials, exceeding US¢70, between mid-June and July, signaling worsening liquidity for the country's washed coffees. The situation is compounded by the Colombian peso's appreciation of more than 13% this year, which is reducing local revenues for exporters and further discouraging sales.

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

27,962

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

18,328

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

1,449

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
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