Global oil supply is tightening sharply as the Strait of Hormuz disruption removes a critical share of global crude and refined product flows. The scale of the imbalance is forcing markets to rapidly reprice supply risk, with physical shortages becoming more pronounced. What began as a transport disruption is now evolving into a broader supply constraint across key producing regions. This escalation highlights the growing risk that the shock could persist beyond the near term and reshape global energy flows.
Bruno Santos, Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX, has tracked global oil trade flows and supply disruptions across multiple market cycles. His analysis focuses on how logistical constraints evolve into structural supply imbalances, offering insight into the current escalation in global oil markets.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Global oil production fell by around 10 million barrels per day following the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Only about 25 percent of Persian Gulf exports have been successfully rerouted through alternative routes.
Production losses are now emerging alongside logistical constraints, deepening the supply shock.
Global Oil Supply Losses Expand as Hormuz Disruption Persists
Global oil supply losses are expanding as the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to restrict flows from the Persian Gulf. Bruno Santos emphasizes the scale of exposure, stating that "the Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 20 to 25% of global oil supply", highlighting the systemic importance of the region. Consequently, even partial disruptions are translating into significant global shortages as alternative routes fail to fully compensate. This imbalance is tightening physical markets and increasing competition for available barrels, driving greater price volatility.
Production Cuts Intensify Global Oil Supply Imbalance
Production cuts are intensifying the global oil supply imbalance as logistical disruptions begin to impact output levels directly. Santos notes that "we had a reduction of around 10 million barrels per day of global production in March", reflecting the scale of the disruption linked to the Persian Gulf. As a result, the supply shock is no longer confined to transportation issues but is becoming embedded in production capacity across key exporters. This shift increases the likelihood of sustained market tightness, with broader implications for refined products, trade flows, and global economic stability.
Download the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook
Access analysis across the agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets, alongside critical insights into the factors influencing these markets over the upcoming quarter.
--- Expert: Bruno Santos, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Energy
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
