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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Today's Perspective Video: The Forecast is Clear. The Market Outlook Isn't.

June 25 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, led by the tech sector, ahead of a plethora of key economic data released this morning, including durable goods orders for May and PCE inflation data. That data gave another initial modest push to those gains when released. The VIX is trading below 18 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 101.6. Yields on 20-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil made new post-war lows this morning below $69 per barrel on reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed, with corn and wheat prices again under modest pressure while soybeans posted modest gains.

Durable goods orders fell by 4.5% on the month in May, but that was better than the 4.7% contraction expected by analysts due to a drop in transportation orders as energy prices soared during the month. Even so, the April number was revised to 8.5% growth, up from 7.9% previously. Durable goods orders excluding those transportation orders rose at a solid 1.3% in May, slightly below an upwardly revised 1.4% growth pace in April, but well above the 0.4% growth pace expected by analysts. Core capital goods orders are seen as an indicator of business confidence. They rose 1.6% on the month in May, up from an upwardly revised -0.7% in April.

Personal income rose 0.7% on the month in May, after being flat in April. The May gains exceeded analyst expectations of 0.4% gains. Personal consumption expenditures also grew at a matching 0.7% pace for the month, up from 0.4% gains in April, and above analyst expectations of 0.5% gains. The headline PCE price index rose 0.4% on the month in May, matching the previous month’s pace, and matching analyst expectations. The headline PCE price index rose 4.1% on the year in May, up from 3.8% in April, but matching analyst expectations. The core PCE price index that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose by 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April as high energy prices began to work their way through other sectors of the economy. The May gains matched analyst expectations. The core PCE price index rose 3.4% on the year in May, up from 3.3% in April, but again matching analyst expectations. The initial expectations are that next month’s numbers for June should show a notable decline in the headline inflation numbers, reflecting collapsing energy prices, while the core numbers may continue to firm.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 215K in the week ending June 20, down from 227K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 225K. The four-week moving average continued to firm though, rising to 224.25K claims, up from 223.5K claims the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending June 13 rose by 21K to 1.821 million, while the four-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 9K to 1.794 million. Much of the economic data has reflected good growth in recent weeks, but recent weekly jobless claims data has raised some red flags. The numbers are not alarming, but they have trended higher in recent weeks. The latest weekly numbers turn lower again. We’ll need to see if that turns into lower numbers for continuing claims as well.

The Chicago Fed national activity index is a composite of 85 existing monthly indicators constructed to have an average of zero, with a standard deviation of one. The index for May came in at -0.10, indicating a slightly below trend growth pace for the economy in May. That was down from an upwardly revised +0.19 for April. The three-month moving average for the index is -0.03, suggesting a near-trend growth pace, down from +0.07 in April. Other data released this morning put the final reading for first quarter gross domestic product at 2.1%, up from 1.6% in the previous reading. The upward adjustment to a solid 2.1% GDP growth pace comes despite personal consumption expenditures being revised to 0.5% growth for the first quarter, down from 1.4% in the preliminary data.

Oil prices continue to slide this morning, reaching down to pre-war levels amid an increase in flow coming from the Strait of Hormuz. The data continues to vary widely, but some of the numbers suggest that the flow reached 20 million barrels yesterday, topping all expectations. Keep in mind that the high number reflects ships being released through the Strait, and that is not likely the flow pace that we’re going to see once the hundreds of backed up ships get through the Strait. The flow of ships going into the Persian Gulf via the Strait has also increased, but it will take time to get wells flowing again after full storage tanks are emptied. Nonetheless, the above news overshadows reports from Russia, where this week’s Ukrainian strike on Moscow’s big refinery shut it down until some time next year. Ukraine’s recent strikes have hobbled a number of oil facilities in Russia, which is now considering a halt to diesel fuel exports amid ongoing rationing in up to two-thirds of the country currently according to some reports. Russia has already banned exports of jet fuel. Ukraine has become very proficient in developing drone technology, and increasingly effective in hobbling Russia’s energy sector in its attempt to force Russia to the negotiating table.    

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June 25 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, led by the tech sector, ahead of a plethora of key economic data released this morning, including durable goods orders for May and PCE inflation data. That data gave another initial modest push to those gains when released. The VIX is trading below 18 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 101.6. Yields on 20-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil made new post-war lows this morning below $69 per barrel on reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed, with corn and wheat prices again under modest pressure while soybeans posted modest gains.

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