By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
If global wheat markets remain comfortably supplied, the outlook for future production depends more and more on farm economics rather than weather alone. Strong harvests in the Black Sea region continue to weigh on prices, yet producers in several exporting countries are facing significantly higher production costs. Those financial pressures are beginning to influence planting decisions, creating a longer-term supply risk that is less visible than short-term weather headlines. The result is a wheat market where today's comfortable balance could become more fragile over the coming seasons.
Ana Luiza Lodi, Senior Principal at StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence, analyzes global grain markets with a particular focus on production economics and international trade flows. Her perspective combines regional crop developments across major exporting countries with the broader forces that ultimately shape global wheat supply.
Wheat production economics are becoming a more influential driver of global supply as higher input costs discourage planting across multiple exporting regions. Ana Luiza Lodi explains that "costs are shaping wheat supply across several key countries" like Argentina, Brazil, Canada or Australia where profitability has deteriorated. Producers around the world are reassessing crop choices and reducing wheat acreage where returns no longer justify rising fertilizer and production expenses. This shift could tighten export availability even if current global inventories remain comfortable.
Farm profitability is a key determinant of how much wheat reaches international markets beyond the current harvest. Lodi notes that in Argentina "higher fertilizer costs, lower expected yields and El Niño risks are leading farmers to cut back sharply", while Brazil is also experiencing reduced planting because of high costs and weather uncertainty. Multiple exporters could simultaneously produce smaller crops, reducing the buffer that has helped offset tighter United States production. Over time, these economic pressures could make global wheat markets more sensitive to future weather shocks and unexpected demand.
Higher fertilizer and input costs reduce farm profitability, leading some producers to plant less wheat. Smaller planted areas can eventually reduce global supplies and increase price volatility.
The discussion highlights Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Australia as countries where higher costs and weaker farm economics are influencing planting decisions.
Weather remains a major driver, but the interview suggests rising production costs are creating an additional structural risk that could tighten supply if adverse weather also develops.
Access analysis across the agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets, alongside critical insights into the factors influencing these markets over the upcoming quarter.
Access Today See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frédéric Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Ana Luiza Lodi, Senior Principal, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Weather often dominates wheat headlines, but rising production costs are becoming just as important in shaping future supply. Across several major exporters, weaker farm economics are reducing planted area and increasing the risk of tighter global availability.
July 14 – Inflation is the focus again over the next couple of days, with critical data for June being released and crude oil prices rising to four-week highs once again. That led to mixed action overnight among the equities, even as fighting escalates in the Middle East. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are near 4.20%, after setting a fresh 17-month high overnight. WTI crude oil is trading at a four-week high near $80, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector turned mostly weaker in the early morning hours.
July 13 – We’re back at war in the Persian Gulf, adding to problems in the Black Sea war; threatening global energy supplies this morning, with risks for food-based commodities as well. Key inflation data will be released over the next two mornings. The equities are mixed to firmer as a result, while the VIX remains relatively low near 16. The dollar index continues to chop around near 101.0 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23, reflecting a fresh 16-month high. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $74 this morning, while Brent trades near $78. Corn and soybean prices followed crude oil higher overnight, while wheat prices turned lower despite the fact that the Kerch Strait is still closed this morning.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
