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Are China’s Resurgent Shoppers About to Revive Growth?

By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels

Are China’s Resurgent Shoppers About to Revive Growth?

Alex Ridgers, Global Head of Retail Dealing at StoneX, believes the market’s next chapter will be written by production trends and price pressures, not the headline data of old.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Rising US industrial production could ignite another equities boom
  • A fresh dip in PPI would widen producer margins and lift risk appetite
  • China’s retail sales rebound and Europe’s lower energy costs are pivotal to global sentiment

US Manufacturing Momentum

Ridgers notes that “industrial production has … finally seen it in 2024 starting to pick up”. After years of stagnation, a sustained up-trend would signal real-economy strength and validate the latest equity bounce. If the series stalls, the rally may have run on empty.

Inflation and Monetary Policy Signals

While CPI remains vital—“still a really key measure”—Ridgers is watching PPI even more closely. “Another negative figure is going to be a really good sign … margins are going to be going up for producers”. He suspects that positive PPI, by contrast, could squeeze profits and cool markets.

China’s Consumer and Factory Pulse

US figures alone no longer dictate direction. Ridgers highlights China’s retail sales, once “averaging 18% growth” and now recovering toward 6%. With industrial production potentially reaching 6.4% next week, he believes that Monday’s data may set the week’s tone. Any miss would dent confidence more than a weak US print.

European Energy and Confidence

Economic data play second fiddle to real-world costs on the continent. “I’m looking at energy prices… crude oil is down in the doldrums now, which I think is great”. Sustained low oil and gas prices, plus progress in Ukraine, could unlock European consumer confidence after years of strain.

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---- Written by Gus Farrow

--- Expert: Alex Ridgers, StoneX Global Head of Retail Dealing

 

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