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Financial Analyst
Bertrand Oesterle, VP of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX, analyzes the latest forces shaping global grain and oilseed markets in a period of high volatility.
Recent tariff deals led by the US have created volatility across grains and oilseeds. “We've had the EU, US and the US, South Korea today, US, Japan for example”, Oesterle noted. These deals, alongside ongoing negotiations with countries like China, Australia and Bangladesh, are reshaping export flows and price dynamics. As agreements emerge, market sentiment is shifting from chaos to renewed optimism for wheat, particularly in Europe.
Wheat prices are responding to both macro moves and local farmer strategies. Oesterle highlighted that “farmers in Bulgaria and Romania, despite having some very good crops, are playing the selling retention game”. Delays in Russian exports, heavy rains across Northern Europe, and concerns over harvest quality are adding to market uncertainty. French wheat, with a completed and high-quality harvest, is gaining focus as potential supply issues in Germany and Poland persist.
While wheat shows rally potential, strong corn and soy markets could temper gains. US corn conditions remain “73% good to excellent”, and South American producers are increasing exports. “The crop conditions are still very good in the US for soybean. The 70% excellent they've regained 3% from the previous week”, Oesterle explained. Large inventories and improving yields in corn and soy may dampen bullish wheat sentiment.
Rapeseed harvest delays in Europe and surprising trends in Chinese soybean oil exports are adding complexity. “China has become a short term exporter of soybean oil...India buying 150,000 tonnes of soybean oil from China, which is again an oddity”. Meanwhile, policy signals from China about feed rations add further uncertainty, leaving the global oilseed outlook finely balanced.
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Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub---- Written by Gus Farrow
---- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
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Cheaper Brazilian frozen chicken is replacing local poultry production across the Mediterranean and Middle East, taking feed corn demand with it. Corn looks cheap after its slide, but without feed buyers the market struggles to attract fresh demand.
November 4 – Stock futures saw an unusually wide overnight trading range as the results of the U.S. midterm elections came in but are pointing to a sharply positive open to kick off the day, though we may be seeing a flow of money out of tech and into other sectors as policy expectations shift. For reference, tech heavy Nasdaq futures are up only 0.4% at the time of writing, while Dow Jones futures are up 2.2%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.2%. Markets have often viewed divided government favorably, as political gridlock can limit major policy swings and provide businesses with a more predictable regulatory and fiscal environment. A unified government, by contrast, increases the likelihood that more of the governing party's agenda can be enacted, as we’ve seen demonstrated rather clearly since the beginning of 2025. With that said, the VIX has also fallen sharply this morning, currently down 13% on the day to hang near the 18 level. The dollar is sharply lower to start the day as well, currently down 0.5% to trade near 101.35, potentially a sign of investors heading back into risk-on mode with the election uncertainty behind us, as well as the potential for less aggressive tariff and Middle East policy. Treasury yields are quietly lower, with 2-year yields at 4.60%, 10-year yields at 4.92%, and 30-year yields at 5.303%. With the midterms out of the way, we’ve removed a major layer of noise, hopefully putting us back in a position where financial markets can begin shifting their focus from this uncertainty back toward economic fundamentals, policy implementation, and corporate earnings.
November 3 – It’s election day in the U.S., with the corresponding geopolitical uncertainty looking to drive a day of volatile, headline-driven trade. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open, with the Nasdaq hoping to find some turnaround Tuesday action to stop the bleeding from the recent selloff that has battered the tech sector and drove the index to its lowest close since late July yesterday. The VIX is off its overnight highs but remains elevated, hovering near 20.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged to start the day, trading at 101.82. Treasury yields are quietly higher after their recent slide that has coincided with the selloff in the equities, particularly tech, potentially signaling some investors fleeing to safe havens, with 2-year yields at 4.585%, 10-year yields at 4.919%, and 30-year yields at 5.294% this morning. Meanwhile, the ags are mostly lower at the break.
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