Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist, says the U.S. government shutdown has halted key USDA reports and left agricultural markets operating with limited visibility.
Key Takeaways
USDA data halted as thousands of staff furloughed
Markets stable despite temporary information blackout
Private surveys now key to guiding traders and farmers
Shutdown Limits USDA Crop Reporting
Suderman notes that more than 42,000 USDA employees have been furloughed, including those responsible for collecting crop samples. “They would be going out into the fields today and sampling corn ears and soybean pods”, he noted. Without these surveys, the October crop report could be delayed or cancelled, leaving traders with limited clarity on harvest outcomes.
Markets Unmoved by Short Term Disruption
Despite the reporting gap, Suderman pointed out that government shutdowns rarely cause lasting market stress. The longest in recent history, lasting 35 days in 2018, reduced GDP by just 0.02%. “Don’t be fooled by gloom and doom stories”, he said, emphasizing that traders tend to look through short term noise.
Private Surveys Fill the Data Void
With official reports paused, private sector surveys are providing essential guidance. Suderman confirmed that “StoneX will be releasing its customer survey results on the size of this year’s corn and soybean crops” to help fill the gap. Other firms are offering similar assessments to maintain a degree of market visibility.
Export Reports and Labor Data at Risk
The shutdown’s impact extends beyond agriculture, affecting broader indicators like trade and employment data. Suderman warned that without daily export sales reports, large grain purchases might go unnoticed. “That allows a buyer to come in and buy up a lot of supplies and the market doesn’t know it”, he said, recalling the 1970s “great grain robbery.”
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