China’s hold over rare earth minerals has become a defining factor in global power dynamics. As Arlan Suderman explains, these materials underpin both economic growth and military capability, making them central to the next phase of US-China competition. This shift from tariffs to resource control highlights how critical minerals now shape the world’s geopolitical and economic balance.
In this interview Arlan Suderman, StoneX's Chief Commodities Economist, highlights how rare earth minerals have turned from an economic issue into a test of geopolitical strength between the US and China.
Key Themes
China controls 90% of rare earth processing, giving it global leverage.
The dispute has shifted from tariffs to national security concerns.
US initiatives aim to accelerate domestic mineral independence.
Suderman traces the roots of this confrontation to decisions made decades ago, when China began acquiring and subsidizing rare earth processing facilities abroad. He explains that “China now controls 90% of the processing of rare earth minerals and magnets”, creating an unmatched dependency across global industries. As these minerals power everything from smartphones to missile systems, Beijing’s position allows it to influence not only supply chains but also defense capabilities worldwide.
From Tariffs to National Security Stakes
What began as a tariff dispute has become a strategic contest. When China restricted access to critical minerals, Suderman notes, world leaders realized “this is no longer a China versus Trump battle… this is a China versus the world battle”. He argues that the US response, applying “warp speed” measures to fast-track domestic mining, marks a turning point. While financial markets focus on short-term trade impacts, Suderman warns that rare earths now define the long-term front line of global competition and economic sovereignty.
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