By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Cocoa supply recovery is changing the tone of a market that spent the previous two years reacting to extreme shortages and record prices. Stronger Ivory Coast production has helped move cocoa away from crisis conditions, but the market remains finely balanced because global stocks have not fully recovered. Direct market commentary from Lucca Bezzon points to a transition where improved supply is meeting renewed weather risk. Cocoa traders are now watching whether the next West African harvest can rebuild inventories before El Niño concerns intensify.
Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, brings commodity market intelligence credentials focused on cocoa supply, demand and production risk. His perspective is especially relevant because cocoa price direction now depends on how West African crop recovery interacts with weather disruption, inventory rebuilding and demand adjustment.
Cocoa supply recovery has created a more bearish pricing backdrop because Ivory Coast production data has changed the market's view of available supply. Bezzon says the revision was "probably the most important bearish development of 2026 so far", after weekly delivery data was revised upward by around 260,000 tons. Cocoa supply estimates and stock evaluations are likely to move higher as traders reassess the scale of West African recovery. This matters because Ivory Coast is the world's largest producing country, so changes in its deliveries can quickly reshape cocoa price expectations and risk positioning.
Cocoa stocks remain a limiting factor for market confidence despite stronger current supply. Bezzon notes that "we still see stocks on the low side", adding that inventories "haven't really recovered from the deficits that we've seen the last couple of years". As a result, cocoa supply recovery does not remove vulnerability because low inventories leave less room for weather-related production setbacks. Specifically, a stronger harvest can ease near-term pressure, but it cannot fully neutralize price risk if the next crop faces climatic disruption.
El Niño risk is becoming central to cocoa harvest stability as traders assess conditions for the next West African crop. Bezzon says market participants are "very sensitive about the El Niño topic", especially because the difficult 2023 and 2024 harvest followed a moderate to strong El Niño in 2023. The concern is that cocoa crops are sensitive to climatic irregularities, and Bezzon highlights strong rainfall in June as one signal drawing market attention. Cocoa price volatility may remain elevated through the July to September crop development window, when weather conditions will help determine whether supply recovery can continue.
Cocoa prices came under pressure after Ivory Coast delivery data was revised upward by around 260,000 tonnes. Bezzon described this as the most important bearish development of 2026 so far because it improved expectations for West African supply.
Cocoa stocks remain important because inventories have not fully recovered from the deficits of the past two years. Low stocks mean the market can remain sensitive to any fresh supply disruption.
El Niño matters because cocoa crops are sensitive to climatic irregularities, especially during key development periods. Bezzon said the market is watching West African weather closely as the next harvest develops between July and September.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
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Cocoa supply has improved after stronger Ivory Coast production, but the market remains exposed to weather risk and low inventories. The next test is whether West African crops can develop smoothly before El Niño concerns return to the center of price discovery.
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