Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Heat waves and a dry summer have cut the EU sugar beet crop sharply, with European Union sugar production heading for a decrease of more than 3 million metric tons for the next crop. That shortfall returns the European Union to the position of net sugar importer, something that did not happen in the last three seasons. The bloc may need net imports of more than 1 million metric tons, adding a new buyer to a global sugar market already tightening around a 2026/27 deficit. With harvest results in France and Germany confirming the poor crop, European demand now sits at the center of global sugar trade flows.
Marcelo Bonifacio, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, covers Latin American sugar and ethanol markets for the firm's South American research team in Campinas. He tracks global sugar production and trade flows across Brazil, India and Asia, along with Brazil's Center-South region, the main swing supplier when other origins come up short.
National organizations in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have all cut their estimates for the European sugar beet crop after a summer of heat and poor rainfall. The critical window for sugar beet runs from June to August, the three months before harvest begins in the middle of September, when beets in northern France and southern Germany need steady rain to develop. "We saw a lot of heat waves in between July and August in the European Union and of course, in the United Kingdom," Bonifacio says, with really poor rains following through the European summer. Notably, the lower sugar beet estimates arrived as the harvest was already starting, leaving little room for the crop to recover.
"We are seeing European Union getting back to the position of net importer of sugar. That didn't happen in the last three seasons." European Union sugar production, Bonifacio explains, is heading for a decrease of more than 3 million metric tons, leaving the bloc needing net imports of more than 1 million metric tons. Hedge funds in New York sugar futures have already priced in the European sugar shortfall, and harvest results in France and Germany are now confirming the poor crop. Consequently, a European Union market that covered its own needs over the last three seasons now competes for imported sugar, adding a fresh source of demand to the global sugar balance.
European Union sugar import needs build during the gap between the European beet harvest and the arrival of Brazil's 2027/28 Center-South sugar on export markets, the window in which the global sugar deficit shows up in physical trade flows. Brazil's Center-South mills have little sugar available during their inter-harvest period, removing the usual swing supplier just as European buying picks up. Other origins offer limited cover since, according to Bonifacio, "Thailand will not have much sugar to export, as their crop will be decreasing and will not have India in the export market." Brazil's 2027/28 Center-South crush is estimated at record levels, yet that sugar gains export traction only several months into the harvest, leaving European Union buyers to compete for scarce raw sugar in the meantime.
Access analysis across the agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets, alongside critical insights into the factors influencing these markets over the upcoming quarter.
Access Today
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Marcelo Bonifacio, StoneX Brazil, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Heat waves and poor summer rains have cut Europe's sugar beet crop and returned the European Union to net sugar imports. That new demand lands just as Thailand and India have little sugar to export and Brazil sits between harvests.
October 8 – Crude oil is higher and stock futures are pointing lower to start the day while the VIX rises back above the 15.7 level. The combination of escalatory rhetoric and continued Iranian strikes on vessels in the region coupled with hurricane related U.S. Gulf production impacts has nearby WTI up close to 4% on the day as it trades at its highest level of the week near $92.40, while nearby Brent is up a stronger 4.6% to trade at a three-week high near $104.80. The rise in crude prices and another week of strong U.S. labor data drives rate expectations higher, reflected in the rise in the dollar as it pushes another 0.1% higher to trade near 102.35, while Treasury yields push higher as well, with the strength at the front-end of the curve. 2-year Treasury yields are up 5 basis points to trade at 4.814%, 10-year yields are up 3 basis points to trade at 5.307%, and 30-year yields are up just over 1 basis point to trade at 5.674%. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed at the break, with the biggest weakness on the soy side while the wheat complex hovers just above unchanged.
Diesel squeeze, rising global rates and a very strong El Niño: what is driving commodity markets in Q4 2026.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
