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Heat waves and poor summer rains have cut Europe's sugar beet crop and returned the European Union to net sugar imports. That new demand lands just as Thailand and India have little sugar to export and Brazil sits between harvests.
Shifting midterm odds are moving market attention away from single White House headlines and toward the U.S. deficit, tariffs and an end to war. Donald Trump can still jolt oil prices, but the drivers of stocks, bonds and crude are spreading across a wider set of policy questions.
Daily coffee report
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
USD/CAD has stalled at a major Fibonacci retracement after five straight weekly gains, and a run of Canadian and U.S. data now sets the backdrop. Canadian employment figures, the University of Michigan survey and the U.S. consumer price index all bear on the Federal Reserve rate path that frames the pair.
October 8 – Crude oil is higher and stock futures are pointing lower to start the day while the VIX rises back above the 15.7 level. The combination of escalatory rhetoric and continued Iranian strikes on vessels in the region coupled with hurricane related U.S. Gulf production impacts has nearby WTI up close to 4% on the day as it trades at its highest level of the week near $92.40, while nearby Brent is up a stronger 4.6% to trade at a three-week high near $104.80. The rise in crude prices and another week of strong U.S. labor data drives rate expectations higher, reflected in the rise in the dollar as it pushes another 0.1% higher to trade near 102.35, while Treasury yields push higher as well, with the strength at the front-end of the curve. 2-year Treasury yields are up 5 basis points to trade at 4.814%, 10-year yields are up 3 basis points to trade at 5.307%, and 30-year yields are up just over 1 basis point to trade at 5.674%. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed at the break, with the biggest weakness on the soy side while the wheat complex hovers just above unchanged.
Comparison between July and September; shift in emphasis and price outlooks
The Federal Reserve has returned to hiking with unanimous support, and its minutes show a majority backing another move before year-end. Markets now price high odds of a further Federal Reserve rate hike, and that shift is lifting U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.
Two lock systems run side by side at the Panama Canal, and a ship's size decides which one it uses and what its slot costs. Auction prices on the newer Neopanamax locks run far above the steadier Panamax locks, making vessel choice a pricing decision for charterers.
Refinery maintenance and U.S. harvest demand are amplifying diesel price sensitivity on top of a global shortage of refining capacity. The G7 emergency reserve release eases short-term spikes, but Europe's diesel supply gap remains.
Daily coffee report
New gas exploration does not immediately solve the unreliable inputs behind Trinidad’s nitrogen plant shutdown. Developing offshore fields takes time, extending the gap between potential gas resources and dependable fertilizer production.
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