By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL variations | Daily: -0.07% | Weekly: +0.80% | Monthly: +0.11% | Annual: -5.29% | Over 12 months: -3.32%
Dollar Index variations | Daily: -0.27% | Weekly: +0.78% | Monthly: +1.58% | Annual: +2.71% | Over 12 months: +2.57%
Less than 9 days to go until the first round of Brazil's presidential elections on October 4, the foreign exchange market is expected to react to the political and electoral landscape, with next week's events being crucial for investors to calibrate their expectations for the final outcome.
Why this matters? A tight electoral race could decrease predictability regarding Brazil's economic policies for the next four years, increasing national asset risk perception, amplifying volatility, and harming the performance of the Brazilian real.
Recent stabilization: The latest poll conducted by Datafolha on Thursday (24) indicated that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro had 47% and 45% of voting intentions in a potential second round, respectively.
Government measures: On Friday night (25), the federal government is expected to sign two provisional measures: one to ban online betting and another for renegotiating individual debts.
US: Interest rate history and expectations – updated September 25, 2026
On the external front, investors are expected to react to the release of key US economic indicators, particularly for inflation and the labor market.
Why this matters: Strong numbers for inflation, GDP, and employment in the US should reinforce the perception of a more robust economy, increasing bets on further interest rate hikes by the Fed in the short term.
Estimates: Median estimates for the Employment Situation Report indicate that the net change in US jobs decreased from 162,000 in August to 100,000 in September.
Variation in total non-farm jobs (000) and the unemployment rate (%) in the US
Higher interest rates for longer: In recent weeks, investors have consolidated expectations of higher interest rates for a longer period in the US, anticipating a firm cycle of Fed rate hikes.
End-of-month PTAX rate – sales (BRL/USD)
Trading volume and exchange rate volatility are expected to increase during today's session due to the formation of the end-of-month PTAX rate.
Why this matters: Financial market operators intensify their operations during the intervals of the final monthly PTAX rate formation to try to influence its value in a direction that is more advantageous for their positions, which increases volatility and makes it harder to interpret the real's movements on the day.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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