By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
USD/CAD has climbed nearly 3.4% from its August low over four consecutive weekly gains, and that rally now runs into a dense cluster of U.S. and Canadian labor market data. U.S. nonfarm payrolls, with expectations for a print of about 84,000 and unemployment widely seen holding at 4.1%, and Canada's employment report are the two jobs releases that frame the next test for the pair. Both land on a USD/CAD rally that is already pressing against the highest closing levels of the year. The result is a currency pair whose momentum and event risk peak at the same time.
Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, brings more than 20 years of experience trading FX, commodities and equity indices, much of it on FX trade desks and brokerages, and has hosted a weekly strategy webinar for more than a decade. He analyzes currency pairs through a structured, multi-time-frame technical lens with a medium-term, event-driven focus, tracking how chart structure lines up against the economic calendar.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls carry expectations for a print of about 84,000, with the unemployment rate widely expected to hold at 4.1%. The report caps a U.S. calendar that also includes core personal consumption expenditures data, where both core readings are expected to tick higher, and a run of Federal Reserve officials including Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Williams and Cook. Boutros frames that commentary as a read on policy, noting that "we'll get a little bit more flavor on where the committee stands with regards to the path of interest rates moving forward". Consequently, the payrolls print lands on a U.S. dollar already being tested by fresh inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary, raising the stakes of any surprise in either direction.
"We get the update from the Canada side of the employment market" [04:36], Boutros says, placing Canadian labor data in the same window as U.S. payrolls. Canada's employment report arrives into a USD/CAD pair that has risen on 13 of the last 14 days, and each of the last three seven-day advances in the pair was followed by at least a one-day pause. The timing adds another layer, with both jobs reports landing into the turn of a new month and a new quarter. In contrast to a quiet calendar, that combination leaves the Canadian dollar exposed to data surprises from both sides of the border, and his takeaway for the period is plain, "we'll want to stay nimble around this time period".
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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U.S. nonfarm payrolls and Canada's employment report put both sides of USD/CAD in play after a four-week rally of nearly 3.4%. The jobs data lands alongside Federal Reserve speakers and core PCE inflation, just as the pair presses against its highest closes of the year.
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