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By: Craig Turner, Senior Risk Management Consultant
GRAINS & OILSEEDS | It is a slow news day in the grain markets. Crude is higher on US and Iran tensions, but Trump has walked back his comments about more attacks before the midterm elections. The WASDE is tomorrow and grain traders seem set to sit on their hands between now and 11 am CT tomorrow.
Harvest is in full swing. We are seeing some price pressure in the market but not as much as we expected. It is hard to tell if farmer selling is light, end user is buying is picking up, or a mix of both.
The weekly Thursday US export report showed corn behind pace about 8% but soybeans ahead of pace by 9%. See tables below. It is still early in the marketing year, but corn bull will want to see exports pick up soon. The oilseed export data is encouraging. Not only are we seeing strong export demand, but domestically crush demand is high, and both meal and oil are finding buyers.
The USDA will release their October WASDE tomorrow. Below are the expectations. Grain and Oilseeds are tighter than average, but not tight enough to warrant significant export demand rationing. If the estimates hold true, I expect corn, soybeans, and wheat to continue to trade in an elevate price range, but no reason to break out higher...yet.
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Oct WASDE Estimates
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Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @CornWheatSoy
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Email: Craig.Turner@StoneX.Com
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October 9 – Stock futures are pointing to an attempted end of week rebound after losing ground in recent days, while the VIX has cooled back below the 15.2 level to start the day. The dollar is up slightly after a back-and-forth session yesterday, continuing to linger near 18-month highs. Treasury yields are resuming their move higher, with 2-year yields trading at 4.804%, 10-year yields at 5.257%, and 30-year yields at 5.622% at the time of writing. Crude oil has traded both sides of unchanged today, reacting to headlines in both directions, but nearby WTI is hanging slightly in the red, down 0.4% to trade near $90.80 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent is up 0.9% to trade near $103.20. The ags are largely mixed to start the session, with all eyes on today’s October WASDE report due out at 11:00 AM Central Time as traders wait to see what shifts USDA will make after incorporating the September quarterly stocks figures, with the biggest questions on corn.
Global Veg Oil Supportive for Canola and Soybean Oil
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